000 AXNT20 KNHC 242248 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jun 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 02N to 14N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection from 05N to 11N between 28W-34W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week as it approaches the Windward Islands. The disturbance has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance over the next 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W from 01N to 13N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 47W-51W. Enhanced rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands as the tropical wave passes through the area Sunday and Sunday night. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 84W S of 17N and across western Panama and into the Pacific Ocean. The wave is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection prevails S of 15N and W of 76W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic coast through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 07N47W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N50W to 08N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned above related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 18W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends southwest of the Florida Panhandle to 30N86W. A large area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the Florida peninsula, affecting the gulf waters E of 84W. A weak high pressure dominates the rest of the area, resulting in gentle anticyclonic flow in the Gulf, with seas of 1-3 ft. For the forecast, the surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to near 28N89W and will drift N and inland through early Sat. A weak trough will then develop from the MS coastal waters to the SW Florida coastal waters late Sat through Mon. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave interacting with the east Pacific monsoon trough is producing strong convection in the SW Caribbean Sea. See above for more information. Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions prevail. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Generally moderate winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, while light to gentle winds prevail over the northwestern portion. Seas are 5-7 ft over the south-central Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the eastern and central basin. Seas of 1-3 ft are over the northwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean into the weekend as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N74W to near Jacksonville FL. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail along and south of the frontal boundary mainly W of 79W. An upper-level low is producing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 30N between 61W and 70W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 6 ft prevail W of 60W. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 28N57W to 24N57W. Scattered showers are associated with this feature, mainly north of 24N. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the recent ASCAT pass along the northern portion of the trough. A broad surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin. Fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are from the ITCZ to about 22N between 50W and the coast of Africa. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front along 30N across the NW waters will sink southward to 29N tonight, then stall through Sat and dissipate. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening. $$ ERA