000 AXNT20 KNHC 241659 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 02N to 14N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 360 nm west of the wave axis and within 150 nm east of the wave axis from 03N to 11.5N. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week as it approaches the Windward Islands. The disturbance has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance over the next 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 02N to 13N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm either side of the wave axis from 06N to 10N. Enhanced rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands as the tropical wave passes through the area Sunday and Sunday night. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 83W south of 17N and across western Panama and into the Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection extends from the wave axis eastward to 75W, from Panama to 13N. This convection is being enhanced by the east Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic coast through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N27W. The ITCZ extends from 07N31W to 07N45W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N49W to 08N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 18W and 24W, and from 04N to 12N between 37W to 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough extends southwest of the Florida Big Bend to 29N87W. A few scattered thunderstorms are noted offshore southeastern Louisiana. A weak high pressure dominates the rest of the area, resulting in gentle anticyclonic flow in the Gulf, with seas of 1-3 ft. For the forecast, the surface trough will drift N and inland through early Sat. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave interacting with the east Pacific monsoon trough is producing strong convection in the SW Caribbean Sea. See above for more information. Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions prevail. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Generally moderate winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, while light to gentle winds prevail over the northwestern portion. Seas are 5-7 ft over the south-central Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the eastern and central basin. Seas of 1-3 ft are over the northwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean into the weekend as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave, currently along 30W, is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles Tue night. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N74W to near Jacksonville FL. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be noted along and just south of the frontal boundary. An upper-level low is producing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 30N between 61W and 67W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 6 ft prevail west of 60W. Over the central Atlantic, a sharp surface through extends from 27N54W to 23N56W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this feature, mainly north of 24N. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the recent ASCAT pass along the northern portion of the trough. A broad surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin. Fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are from the ITCZ to about 22N between 50W and the coast of Africa. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the weak cold front along 30N will sink southward to 29N today, then stall through early Sat and dissipate. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W Tue evening. $$ Colon-Burgos/Hagen