000 AXNT20 KNHC 241016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jun 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W/28W from 02N to 15N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection, in large clusters, within 360 nm west of the wave axis from 03N to 10N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as this system moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. The disturbance has a medium chance of development over the next 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W/46W from 02N to 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave along and near the ITCZ to 42W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of the to near 49W, and from 05N to 10N. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W south of 17N and across Panama and into the Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave south of 12N to the coasts Costa Rica and Panama, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 13N to 17N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic coast through the border of Senegal and The Gambia near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to just east of a tropical wave, then continues from just west of the tropical wave from 08N29W to 08N39W to just east of another tropical wave, and from 07N47W to 07N58W. Numerous moderate convection is located south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 16W-21W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is to the southeast from 04N to 08N between 10W-15W, also within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 32W-35W, and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 32W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the ITCZ within 60 nm of 04N34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough extends from southeastern Georgia southwestward to 27N85W and to near 23N91W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm west of the trough from 23N to 27N. Upper-level divergence east of a small upper low that is identified near 27N91W is aiding a line of scattered showers showers and thunderstorms near the southern portion of the trough. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a 1015 mb high center that is analyzed over the NW Gulf near 27N92W. It providing for rather tranquil weather conditions outside the aforementioned scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. The associated gradient is allowing for gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic winds and relatively low seas of 1-3 ft. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the tropical wave mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, fairly weather conditions dominate the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are present over the south-central section of the basin, with the strongest winds occurring in the Gulf of Venezuela. An overnight ASCAT pass detected fresh trade winds over the far southeast section of the sea. Seas in the waters described are 4-6 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are noted in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, while light to locally moderate winds are present in the northwestern Caribbean. Seas in this region are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong east winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean into the weekend as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from a low pressure system that is well north of the area near 36N69W, southwestward to 32N76W, where it becomes stationary to 33N79W, and a warm front from there to a 1008 mb low over eastern Georgia. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm southeast and south of the cold front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the stationary and warm fronts. Overnight ASCAT data depicts moderate to locally fresh south-southwest winds within 150 nm southeast of the cold front. Seas in the area described are 3-6 ft. Farther east, a nearly stationary upper-level low noted on water vapor imagery south of Bermuda near 26N65W is producing increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N-28N and between 61W-67W. Frequent lightning is being observed with this activity. The gradient associated to Atlantic high pressure ridging that extends from a strong 1035 mb high over the north-central Atlantic to near Hispaniola is providing gentle to moderate northeast to northeast to east winds along with seas of 4-7 ft north of 20N between 25W-70W. Light to gentle east-southeast winds as seen in recent ASCAT data passes along with seas of 1-3 ft are present from Hispaniola northward to 29N and the remainder of the basin west of 65W. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to northeast-east trade winds and seas at 4-7 ft exist from 09N to 20N between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh north- northeast trade winds and seas in the range of 4-7 ft are near the Canary Islands south to 15N and east of 25W. A recent overnight ASCAT pass captured an area of moderate to fresh northeast trade winds from just north of the ITCZ west of 38W to the tropical wave that is along 45W/46W, and north from there to 21N. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, a weak cold front just north of the NW waters will sink southward to 29N today, then stall through early Sat and dissipate. Fresh southwest winds south of the front to 29N will diminish this afternoon. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. $$ Aguirre