000 AXNT20 KNHC 240531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jun 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W and south of 13N based on recent scatterometer satellite wind data. It is moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N-10N and between 22W and 29W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as this system moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. The disturbance has a medium chance of development over the next 5 days. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 13N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are found from 06N-09N and between 42W and 45W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 17N and across Panama into the Pacific Ocean, and moving W around 10 kt. A large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is noted S of 16N and between the coast of NW Colombia and E Nicaragua, including within 90 nm of Costa Rica and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic coast through the border of Senegal and The Gambia near 14N17W and continues to 11N19W. The ITCZ extends from 11N19W to 07N25W and then from 06N27W to 07N43W and then from 07N45W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N-10N and E of 20W. Similar convection is occurring from 02N-11N and between 31W and 41W. Scattered showers are noted near the ITCZ W of 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough extends from SE Georgia to the central Gulf of Mexico near 23N89W. Upper level divergence is enhancing the development of a line of showers near the southern portion of the trough. The rest of the basin is dominated by a 1015 mb high pressure system positioned over the NW Gulf and the weather conditions are fairly tranquil. Gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the tropical wave mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, fairly weather conditions dominate the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong trades are affecting the south- central and southeast waters of the basin, with the strongest winds occurring in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in the waters described are 4-6 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades are noted in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, while light to locally moderate winds are present in the NW Caribbean. Seas in this region are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean into the weekend as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from a low pressure near 36N69W to the coast of Georgia. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is seen N of 30N and between 71W and 76W. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are present N of 27N and W of 71W. Seas in the area described are 3-6 ft. Farther east. an upper-level low south of Bermuda near 26N65W is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N-28N and between 61W and 66W. The Atlantic ridge extending from a 1035 mb high over the north- central Atlantic to near Hispaniola is providing gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 4-7 ft north of 20N between 25W and 70W. Light to gentle southerly winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are evident from Hispaniola northward to 29N and the remainder of the basin west of 65W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 4-7 ft exist from 09N to 20N between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh NNE trades and 4-7 ft seas are present near the Canary Islands to 15N and E of 25W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, a weakening frontal boundary just north of the NW waters will sink southward to 29N late tonight through early Sat and dissipate. Fresh SW winds over the NW waters will continue through late tonight. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. $$ Delgado