000 AXNT20 KNHC 231659 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jun 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 25W from 12N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-13N between 20W-30W. A tropical wave has been added to this analysis, with axis along 42W from 01N-11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Latest scatterometer data depicts a broad cyclonic circulation in the area and latest guidance shows cyclonic turning at 700 mb. Satellite imagery depicts scattered moderate convection within 100 nm on either side of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is along 78W from 17N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm E of the wave axis south of 13N. A large area of moderate convection is noted W of the wave from 11N-15N between 79W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N16W to 12N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 10N37W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N46W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-10N between 45W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1017 mb is centered over the NW Gulf near 27N94W. To the east, a surface trough extends from the Florida's Big Bend to near 20N86W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the northern Gulf with gentle to moderate winds over the southern Gulf. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the southern Gulf and 1-3 ft over the northern Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail over the south central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds are noted over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean into the weekend as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across N central portions. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A gale force low is moving over the western Atlantic north of the area. Fresh to strong winds in association to this low are impacting the waters north of 30N and west of 73W. A surface trough extends from near 28N69W to the southern Bahamas. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough axis mainly north of 24N. Light to gentle winds prevail near the trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N, with gentle to moderate winds over the waters south of 20N. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range north of 20N and west of 55W, and 5-7 ft north of 20N and east of 55W. South of 20N, seas of 4-6 ft are noted. For the forecast W of 65W, the trough over the eastern Bahamas will dissipate into Fri, while Atlantic high pressure remains centered across N central portions. Fresh to strong SW winds over the NW waters will continue through tonight as low pressure moves north of the area. $$ ERA