000
AXNT20 KNHC 222307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed tropical wave is near 19W from 01N to 12N, moving
west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N
to 09N between 17W and 20W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 17N southward into 
western Venezuela, moving westward at 10 knots. No significant
convection is evident.

The far northern extent of a tropical wave moving inland over the
coast of Veracruz Mexico in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico. No
significant convection is noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends westward across the coast of Guinea-
Bissau through 12N16W to 10N35W. The ITCZ extends from 10N35W to
06N57W. No significant convection is noted.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak 1020 mb high pressure is centered over the coast of 
southwest Louisiana. A weak trough reaches from the the Florida 
Big Bend area to near 29N87W. This patten is supporting gentle to 
moderate NE winds across the basin, except for light and variable 
winds over the northwest Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the 
southwest Gulf and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. No significant showers or 
thunderstorms are evident.

For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds 
and slight to moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan 
peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds are evident across the south-central
and southwest Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas, with areas of strong
E winds and seas to 7 ft along the coast of Colombia between 
Cartagena and Barranquilla. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2
to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. An upper-level trough extends 
from eastern Cuba to Belize. Upper divergence related to this 
feature is enhancing sea breeze-driven showers and thunderstorms 
over Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Trade wind convergence is 
also supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the
far southwest Caribbean as well, mainly south of 12N and west of 
75W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail 
over the south- central Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, 
mainly moderate trades will dominate. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough reaches from 31N63W to 27N65W to the southern Bahamas.
Gentle to moderate NE winds are evident within 120 nm northwest of
this trough, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Elsewhere west of 60W, light to
gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate. Farther east, the
subtropical ridge covers the waters north of 20N, supporting
mostly moderate NE to E winds. Seas are 5 to 7 ft north of 20N
east of 60W, and 3 to 5 ft farther south.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough east of the Bahamas will dissipate
into Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop off northeast
Florida tonight and continue through Thu night as low pressure 
moves offshore the SE U.S. north of the area. 

$$
Christensen