000
AXNT20 KNHC 220930
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 67W from 18N southward, 
moving westward 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within
60 nm of the wave axis south of 15N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W from 22N southward, 
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted over the SW Gulf W of the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off Africa near 14N17W to 14N20W to
08N35W. The ITCZ continues from 08N35W to 07N58W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N
between 13W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 09N between 32W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1020 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near 
29N85W. A tropical wave is moving through the SW Gulf. Fresh to 
locally strong winds are in the vicinity of the tropical wave. 
Light winds are around the center of the high, and gentle to 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range 
over the SW Gulf, 4-5 ft over the NW Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the 
eastern Gulf. 

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in
the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at
night through Thu night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure off the east coast of
the United states, and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting
fresh to locally strong winds over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7
ft range over the south central Caribbean, 3-4 ft over the
eastern Caribbean, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail 
over the south- central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally 
fresh winds are expected over the remainder of the central and 
eastern Caribbean, with light to gentle winds over the western 
Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N62W to 25N72W,
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the front.
High pressure prevails elsewhere north of 20N. Light to gentle
winds are in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, gentle to moderate
winds prevail. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range north of 20N and west
of 50W, 5-8 ft north of 20N and east of 50W, and 4-5 ft south of
20N. 

For the forecast W of 65W, a trough over the eastern waters will 
drift westward over the southern waters and weaken through Fri. 
Fresh to strong SW winds will develop over the NW waters Thu and 
Fri as low pres shifts north of the area. 

$$
AL