000
AXNT20 KNHC 210930
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W from 15N southward, 
moving westward at around 15 knots. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 60W
and 63W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of 
Mauritania near 19N16W to 15N25W to 07N35W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N35W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 24W and 34W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 40W and 50W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf from near 23N92W to
the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted east
of the trough axis. High pressure prevails elsewhere across the 
Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf, with
moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7
ft range on the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of
Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through
the middle part of the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean as
well as the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the south central
Caribbeans as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 3-6 ft are
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of the area 
along with lower pressure farther south over the southwest 
Caribbean and eastern Pacific will support fresh to strong E to SE
winds and occasionally rough seas over mainly the south-central 
and northwest Caribbean through early today. Winds and seas will 
then diminish basin wide through mid week as the Atlantic ridge 
weakens, then freshen across the south-central portions Fri. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N60W southwest to the northern
Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 270 nm east of the front north of 28N. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail north of the front. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 55W. Moderate to
fresh winds are elsewhere north of 20N and east of 55W. South of
20N, Gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range north of 20N and west of 45W. East of 45W, seas are in the
6-8 ft range. South of 20N, seas of 4-7 ft are noted. 

For the forecast W of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate 
today. The remnant trough will then persist northeast of the 
Bahamas through mid week. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will 
remain centered across the NE Atlantic and extend a ridge across 
the area. 

$$
AL