000 AXNT20 KNHC 210553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jun 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W, from 15N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 11N to 13N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W/89W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The monsoon trough passes through the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, western Honduras, and El Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 08N79W, to SE Nicaragua. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 73W and 75W in Colombia; within 50 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 80W and 83W in Panama; and from 11N to 12N between 80W and 82W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Costa Rica and Nicaragua and in the Nicaragua coastal waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 19N16W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 15N25W, to 09N30W and 07N35W. The ITCZ continues from 07N35W to 05N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 25W and 35W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 07N between 05W and 13W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb low pressure center is within 30 nm of the coast of the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is between the western sections of Guatemala, and in the entire area of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to 97W, and in the coastal waters of Mexico from 23N southward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. This upper level cyclonic wind flow accompanies the western Atlantic Ocean upper level trough. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 60W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Bahamas, in parts of southern Florida, and in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds span the entire area. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet from 26N northward, and from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, away from the surface trough and the outflow boundary. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through the middle part of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from the Windward Passage westward. An upper level trough extends from Hispaniola to northern Colombia. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. One tropical wave has entered the southeastern Caribbean Sea with its nearby precipitation. A second tropical wave is along 88W/89W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The monsoon trough passes through the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, western Honduras, and El Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 08N79W, to SE Nicaragua. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 73W and 75W in Colombia; within 50 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 80W and 83W in Panama; and from 11N to 12N between 80W and 82W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Costa Rica and Nicaragua and in the Nicaragua coastal waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the central Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, where the wind speeds are comparatively the fastest. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Atlantic high pressure centered NE of the area along with lower pressure farther south over the southwest Caribbean and eastern Pacific will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas over mainly the south-central and northwest Caribbean tonight. Winds and seas will then diminish basin wide through mid week as the Atlantic ridge weakens, then freshen across the south-central portions Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 60W westward. A stationary front passes through 31N61W to 26N70W 26N76W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the area that is from 20N northward from 57W westward. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are behind the stationary front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 55W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N36W. Isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are north of 27N east of 40W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow is in the western Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights have been ranging: from 7 feet to 10 feet from 20N northward from 39W eastward in NE swell; from 4 to 6 feet elsewhere from 50W eastward; from 24N southward between 50W and 60W; and from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front from 27N66W to the northern Bahamas will stall and dissipate across the NW Bahamas Tue. The remnant trough will then persist northeast of the Bahamas through mid week. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the NE Atlantic and extend a ridge across the area. $$ mt/al