000 AXNT20 KNHC 210002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jun 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave has its axis along 69W south of 16N to inland western Venezuela. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over northern Venezuela between 69W-72W. A tropical wave is along 88W south of 22N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are over the majority of the inland sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua. Latest ASCAT data passes indicate fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the northwestern Caribbean west of 82W along with seas of 4-6 ft, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft north of 18N and west of 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwest to low pressure of 1012 mb near 15N24W and to 08N33W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N44W and to and 09N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is between 180 to 240 nm southeast and south of the between 25W and 30W. Similar activity is noted from 09N to 12N between 57W-61W, and just offshore the coast of Africa from 03N to 10N. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is in the NW Gulf, and 1012 mb low pressure is centered in the central Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. Weak high pressure is over basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted south of 22N west of 93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is just inland and along the Yucatan Peninsula coast south of 21N. This activity is sliding southwestward over the far eastern Bay of Campeche waters. Similar activity is west-central Florida and over southwest Florida and its adjacent waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the south-central Gulf waters from 22N to 24N and between 84W-87W. Isolated showers and small thunderstorms are over the north- central waters. A few showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of the Florida panhandle. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are noted across the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft north of 26N, and 3-5 ft south of 26N. For the forecast, a surface trough will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms for the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche through late Tue afternoon. Otherwise, surface ridging will provide gentle to moderate winds across much of the Gulf through Tue night, except the west- central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche where moderate to fresh with locally strong east-southeast winds are expected. Afterwards, the weakening ridge should provide gentle to moderate winds for the entire Gulf through the weekend. Northeast winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche will pulse to between fresh and strong on Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a tropical wave currently impacting the far northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the east segment of the eastern East Pacific monsoon trough are over the southwest part of the sea from 11N to 15N between 70W and the coast of Nicaragua. An area of moderate to fresh trade winds is evident on the latest scatterometer pass in the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean where winds are highest and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a tightened pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast and lower pressure near Panama and western Colombia will prolong fresh to strong northeast-east to east-southeast trade winds and higher seas across the western and central basin, including the Gulf of Honduras through Tue morning. These winds should become gentle to moderate by late Tue afternoon as the Atlantic ridge weakens. Winds in the south-central basin will be moderate to fresh until Wed, then become fresh with locally strong by Thu. Strong trade wind convergence is triggering showers and thunderstorms near the Windward Islands and this trend will continue through late Tue afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion waters at 31N61W and continues to 28N66W and to 26N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 to 180 nm east-southeast of the front, and behind it within 30 nm of 28N67W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are behind this front. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad high pressure, with the parent high center located well north of the discussion area near the Azores. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh northeast winds are north of 27N east of 40W, with 7-10 ft seas in northeast swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow continues, with 4-6 ft seas in the western Atlantic, and 4-7 ft seas in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front and related weather will sink southward into the central Bahamas through Tue, then stall and dissipate late Tue. The remnant trough will then persist east of the Bahamas through mid-week. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the NE Atlantic and dominate much of the Atlantic Basin. $$ Aguirre