000 AXNT20 KNHC 200554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 16N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 270 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and it is near the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon trough passes through east central coastal Nicaragua to Colombia near 09N75W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N northward between 80W and the tropical wave. Scattered strong in clusters is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between the coast of Colombia and 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal plains of Senegal, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 13N27W, to 08N32W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 07N40W and 08N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strongis within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 26W and 32W, and within 200 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 43W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is in the north central coastal plains and coastal waters, from Florida to Louisiana. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward from 93W eastward. Light to gentle northeast to east winds are in most areas. The exception is for gentle to moderate winds in the southern sections of the basin. The sea heights generally range from 2 feet to 4 feet, except for the sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the central, the southeastern, and the southwestern sections. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, away from the surface trough and the outflow boundary. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. Tropical Depression Celia is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 210 nm to the south of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are from Belize to Guatemala to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and in the coastal waters, from 21N in the Gulf of Mexico southward. A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters, providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. The winds off the western Yucatan Peninsula, and in the Bay of Campeche, will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through the middle part of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally moderate trade winds are in much of the area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet. The exception is the central Caribbean Sea. The surface pressure gradient that is between the subtropical Atlantic Ocean high and lower pressure in South America and the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea, supports fresh to locally strong trade winds. These winds have been in the same area during the last few days. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet, due to an east swell in the central Caribbean Sea from 12N to 16N between 72W and 77W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon trough passes through east central coastal Nicaragua to Colombia near 09N75W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N northward between 80W and the tropical wave. Scattered strong in clusters is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between the coast of Colombia and 78W. Atlantic Ocean high pressure centered NE of the area, and lower pressure farther south in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and in the eastern Pacific Ocean, will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas, mainly in the south central and northwestern Caribbean Sea through Mon night. The winds and the seas will diminish basin wide through mid week, as the Atlantic Ocean ridge weakens, then freshen in the south central part on Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N66W to 30N70W. A stationary front continues from 30N70W, beyond NE Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N northward from 63W westward. Other isolated moderate is elsewhere, from the NE Caribbean Sea islands and 20N northward from 60W westward. A surface trough passes through 31N51W to 26N52W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N northward between 50W and 60W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm of the center in the W quadrant. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N29W, with no nearby significant deep convective precipitation. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 18N northward from 50W eastward. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are to the southeast of the cold front, while mainly gentle east winds are to the south of the stationary front. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds are from 20N southward. Fresh winds are behind the 55W/56W tropical wave. These winds reach eastward to 42W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet to the north of the line 31N14W 29N20W 19N26W 31N35W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 13 feet from 31N northward from 20W eastward. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 13N27W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 04N to 09N between 20W and 26W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet from 20N northward between 30W and 40W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front across the northern waters will sink southward across the waters north of 27N through Mon night, then stall and dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue. The remnant trough will then persist northeast of the Bahamas through mid week. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the NE Atlantic and extend a ridge across the area. $$ mt/al