000 AXNT20 KNHC 192359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W south of 16N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 07N to 10N. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W south of 22N to the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Enhanced scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 22N between 80W-85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of the wave. ASCAT data indicated fresh to strong east-southeast winds behind the wave to 81W.3W in the vicinity of the wave axis. Seas with these winds are in the range of 4-7 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the border of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 13N22W to 07N30W and to 07N38W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N41W and to just east of the tropical wave that is along 53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 270 nm south and southeast of the trough between 23W-28W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 28W-33W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 33W-39W. Strong to near gale force south to southwest winds were noted in an earlier ASCAT pass to be south of the scattered moderate to isolated convective activity. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1018 mb is centered just inland Texas near Galveston. A stationary front stretches from northern Florida westward to 29N87W and northwestward to inland southeastern Louisiana. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving westward are over the central Gulf from 25N to 28N between 87W- 92W. A surface trough over the southwestern Gulf is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 19N to 21N west of 95W to just inland the coast of Mexico. The latest buoy and ASCAT data passes reveal light to gentle northeast to east winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate winds in southern sections of the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft, except for 3-5 ft in the central, southeastern and Bay of Campeche sections. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through the middle part of next week CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a tropical wave currently impacting the northwestern Caribbean. Outside of the northwest Caribbean, which is largely dominated by a passing tropical wave, generally moderate trade winds are occurring elsewhere in the basin along with 4-7 ft seas. The exception is the central Caribbean, where the pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure over South America and the southwestern Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong trade winds. The persistence of these winds over the past couple of days has built seas to 7-9 ft due to an east swell in the central Caribbean from 12N to 16N between 72W-77W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving off the coast of northwestern Colombia to the waters south of 13N and between 74W-78W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 12N and west of 77W. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of the area along with lower pressure farther south over the southwest Caribbean and eastern Pacific will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas over mainly the south- central and northwest Caribbean through Mon night. Very active weather is expected across the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Mon as a tropical wave moves across the area. Winds and seas will diminish basin wide through mid-week as the Atlantic ridge weakens, then freshen across the south-central sections on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N68W to 30N75W, where it becomes stationary to 30N78W and to inland northeastern Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 360 nm southeast and south of the cold front, and also south of the stationary front from 24N to 28N between 75W-80W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the Florida peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 24N west of 75W, and from 22N to 24N between 67W-75W. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are southeast of the cold front, while mainly gentle east winds are south of the stationary front. A surface trough extends from 31N50W to near 26N54W. No significant convection is occurring with this trough. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the waters north of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds south of the 20N. Fresh winds are behind the tropical wave that is along 53W. These winds reach eastward to near 42W. Seas are 4-6 ft west of 65W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will push southward across the waters north of 27N through Mon night then stall and dissipate across the northwestern Bahamas late Tue. The remnant trough will then persist northeast of the Bahamas through mid week. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the northeastern Atlantic and extend a modest ridge across the area. $$ Aguirre