000 AXNT20 KNHC 171755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 39W from 14N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N between 36W and 45W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 72W from 14N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted inland over NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 14N16W to 08N18W to 07N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N24W to 05N37W. A second segment of the ITCZ is from 05N41W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N69W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 03N to 08N east of 19W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of both segments of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure is centered of the SE Louisiana coast near 28N89W. A weak surface trough is noted in the Bay of Campeche, producing a few showers. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails with 2-4 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, an area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras and the adjacent Caribbean waters is forecast to move slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, and into the Bay of Campeche early next week. This will cause winds and seas in the bay to increase by Sun night. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where local effects will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The 1010 mb low pressure centered in the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W has a low chance (10%) of developing into a tropical cyclone before moving inland over Belize later tonight or tomorrow. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N to 20N west of 81W to the coasts of Belize and Mexico. Fresh to strong trades are noted in the NW Caribbean near the low pressure, with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection, associated with the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is from the coast of Panama north to 11N east of 79W, including inland sections Colombia. For the forecast, the area of low pressure is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward across the Gulf of Honduras where some development is still possible today. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected over the NW Caribbean through tonight in association with the area of low pressure. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds over the southern Caribbean roughly S of 15N between 65W and 74W at night. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across much of the basin Sat night through Mon as high pressure builds modestly north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N49W to 26N61W. A stationary front continues from 26N61W to 26N76W. Fresh to strong SW winds are along the cold front, north of 25N. Seas are 8-9 ft, north of 29N between 46W and 50W. An upper level low centered NE of the Leeward Islands is currently producing some scattered showers. High pressure ridging prevails across the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by high pressure centered near the Azores. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted across the basin on the latest scatterometer data, with 3-6 ft seas. NE winds are fresh to locally strong east of 20W along the coast of Africa, with seas peaking to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the frontal boundary will move eastward across the NE waters today and will stall tonight before dissipating over the forecast waters. A second cold front will sink southward off the Georgia/Florida coast Sun through Mon, then stall and dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue. $$ Mahoney/Colon-Burgos