000 AXNT20 KNHC 161801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jun 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 14N southward, and moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 03N to 05N between 31W and 35W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 14N southward into northwestern Venezuela and southeastern Colombia, and moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Aided by upper-level divergent flow, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the southeastern basin, north of Venezuela. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 19N southward across Costa Rica/Panama into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Coupling with a robust mid-level trough in the vicinity, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is found over the northwest and west-central basin, east of Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal to south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 10N22W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of the trough near the coast of Liberia and Ivory Coast. An ITCZ reaches westward from 06N23W to 04N32W, and from 06N37W to the French Guiana coast at 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 80 nm along either side of the first ITCZ segment, and from 04N to 09N between 35W and the coast of French Guiana and Suriname near the second segment. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Panama- Colombia border and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from east of New Orleans through the Mississippi coast. It is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms near Port Fourchon, LA. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high pressure just southwest of New Orleans continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are seen across the northern half of the Gulf, while gentle to moderate easterly winds are found for the southern half. Seas range from 1 to 2 ft in the eastern Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft for the western Gulf. For the forecast, an area of low pressure located inland near the border of northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible by Friday. This system is expected to continue moving northwestward and may emerge early next week over the southern Bay of Campeche. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Belize, southeastern Mexico and the adjacent waters through the weekend. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high will continue to dominate the Gulf waters, providing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except off the western Yucatan Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where local effects will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are joining forces with an upper-level low north of the area to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic and nearby waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the basin. Fresh to locally strong E to ESE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are present over the north-central basin. Moderate to fresh ESE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist for the eastern and south-central basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found across the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the southwestern basin. For the forecast, a low pressure located inland near the border of northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras is accompanied by a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending offshore. This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible by Friday. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected over the NW Caribbean today through Sat morning in association with the low pressure. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds over the southern Caribbean roughly S of 15N between 64W and 72W at night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves westward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N60W through 28N70W to 29N78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident near and up to 110 nm south of the front. Moderate to fresh southerly winds along with 6 to 9 ft seas are present near the front north of 29N between 65W and 76W. A broad surface ridge originated from the 1025 mb Azores High is supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas from 25N to 29N between 40W and Bahamas. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen from 08N to 25N between the African coast and the Lesser Antilles/South American coast. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move E-SE across the west-central Atlantic waters today, reaching 27N by tonight, then stall on Fri before dissipating over the forecast waters. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 65W through this evening. A second but weaker cold front will move across the same region on Sun. A ridge will follow the front. $$ Chan