000
AXNT20 KNHC 160413
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 29W, south of 14N, moving
W at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak.

An Atlantic tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antillesextends
along 61W, south of 14N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed in the eastern Caribbean from 10N to 14N, 
between 61W and 64W. 

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 81W, south of 19N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to
20N, between 77W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea
Bissau and The Gambia near 12N17W to 07N27W. The ITCZ continues
west of a tropical wave from 06N32W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 
08N between 12W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is also 
observed north of the ITCZ from 07N to 09N, between 46W and 53W.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends through the SW
Caribbean, enhancing convection associated with the tropical wave
described earlier.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1017 mb high pressure centered in the northern Gulf near
20N90W is causing light to gentle winds in the NE basin. The 
pressure gradient increases in the western and southern Gulf, 
with moderate to fresh easterlies west of 94W and south of 25N, 
and fresh to strong ENE winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1-3
ft in the NE Gulf, 3-5 ft in the western Gulf, and 4-6 ft in the 
southern Gulf.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure located inland over 
eastern Nicaragua is forecast to move slowly northwestward and 
could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is 
possible by Friday. Some development is also possible over the 
southern Bay of Campeche by early next week. Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Nicaragua, 
Honduras, Belize, and southeastern Mexico through the weekend. 
Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters providing
mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except off the western 
Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where a thermal 
trough will support fresh to strong E to NE winds at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Caribbean Basin.

The gradient between sub tropical high pressure in the Atlantic,
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is sustaining moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds through the majority of the basin. 
Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except 5-7 ft in the central basin.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure located inland over 
eastern Nicaragua is accompanied by a disorganized area of showers
and thunderstorms. Additional development is unlikely during the 
next day or so while the low remains inland. The system is 
forecast to move slowly northwestward and could emerge over the 
Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible by Friday. 
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and southeastern Mexico through the 
weekend. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected over the NW 
Caribbean late Thu through Sat morning in association with the 
above mentioned area of low pressure. Mainly moderate to fresh 
trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N68W to
30N73W to 31N78W. A line of thunderstorms is observed
approximately 30-60 nm ahead of the front. NE winds are moderate 
behind the front. A surface ridge extends SW from a 1026 mb high 
pressure located in the central Atlantic near 33N34W to roughly
25N60W and then continues WNW to central Florida. North of the 
ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW with 5-7 ft seas. 
South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the E with 
5-7 ft seas. Within the ridge, winds are gentle with 3-5 ft seas. 
In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE 
with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from Bermuda
to near 30N78W will move across the N waters tonight and Thu 
reaching 27N by Thu night before dissipating. Fresh to strong SW 
winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 65W tonight through
Thu night. A second weaker front will move across the same region
on Sun. A ridge will follow the front.

$$
Flynn