000 AXNT20 KNHC 151801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jun 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 27W from 14N southward, and moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 05N to 09N between 26W and 29W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is just east of Barbados near 59W from 13N southward into Guyana, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Windward Islands, over northeastern Venezuela and northern Guyana. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from Jamaica southward into western Colombia, and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found across the south-central Caribbean Sea, north of Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends across the coast of Guinea-Bissau through 10N23W to 05N32W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of the Cabo Verde Islands from 07N to 14N between the central African coast and 24W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near the coast of Liberia and Ivory Coast. Farther southwest, an ITCZ extends from 03N32W to north of Belem, Brazil near 03N48W. Scattered showers are found up to 90 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean waters, including the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough runs from near New Orleans to Tallahassee, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near New Orleans. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high pressure southeast of New Orleans is in control much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNE to E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are dominating the eastern Gulf. Moderate SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist over the northwestern and west-central Gulf. Fresh to strong ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the high will persist over the Gulf through Sat. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the western Gulf through today. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the high weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the south-central Gulf by the weekend as a disturbance approaches from the northwestern Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Caribbean Basin. The Atlantic ridge to the north continues to sustain a trade-wind regime for the entire basin, except the southwestern portion. Moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly trades and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail across the eastern, central and west-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident for the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist for the southwestern basin. For the forecast, a small area of low pressure located along the monsoon trough near the coast of Nicaragua will continue to generate disorganized showers and thunderstorms through this evening. This low and associated weather should drift NW along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras later this week. Some slow development of this system is still possible if it moves over waters again. Regardless of development, the low could produce periods of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras through late this week. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will prevail through the forecast period, supporting mainly fresh trade winds in the central and western basin. Locally strong winds will develop at night over the weekend in the south- central Caribbean and from Thu night through Fri night in the Gulf of Honduras associated with the disturbance mentioned above. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-level trough near 29N72W is coupling with convergent southerly winds to generate scattered moderate convection northeast of the Bahamas, north of 28N between 72W and 75W. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers from 06N to 08N between 34W and 48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large dome of 1026 mb high near 31N41W dominates much of the Atlantic Basin with light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 25N between 30W and 60W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are seen from the Bahamas northward between 60W and the Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present near the Canary Islands north of 18N between the northwest African coast and 30W, and also from 12N to 18N between 24W and 30W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found from 07N to 25N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge related to the 1026 mb high will remain along 26N through tonight. A cold front will enter the northern waters tonight, extending from 31N59W to 30N74W early Thu, and weakening by early Fri from 28N55W to 27N60W. The front will bring fresh to strong winds to areas east of 68W and north of 28N. The ridge will build again along 25N by late Fri. A weak cold front should move through the area late in the weekend. $$ Chan