000 AXNT20 KNHC 140421 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jun 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 49W, south of 14N, and is moving west at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 67W, south of 14N, and is moving west at 20 kt. Convection is limited over water, with scattered moderate convection observed in Venezuela from 04N to 10N between 61W and 68W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 83W, south of 20N, and is moving west at 15 kt. Isolated weak convection is observed in the NW Caribbean from 15N to 20N, between 80W and 88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 08N38W. The ITCZ continues from 08N38W to 09N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N, between 12W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf with 4-6 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is observed along a surface trough in the eastern Bay of Campeche, where winds are fresh to strong from the E with 5-7 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the eastern Gulf, with gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist across the basin through Sat. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the western half of the Gulf into Wed and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the south-central Gulf by late Fri as low pressure possibly approaches from the northwest Caribbean. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong gradient persists between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds through the majority of the basin with 6-8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in the south- central Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are funneling through the Windward Passage. A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from southern Nicaragua to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed near this feature from 10N-14N, between 77W-81W. For the forecast, a surface ridge north of the area will persist through the middle of the week, north of an active monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between these features through at least mid-week. The strongest winds are expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western Caribbean by Thu, then move northwest through the Gulf of Honduras Fri and Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high in the central Atlantic near 32N42W to central Florida. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 20N-25N, between 65W-70W, due to a mid-level trough. North of the ridge, moderate southerly winds dominate with 3-5 ft seas. South of the ridge, moderate to fresh easterly winds dominate with 5-7 ft seas. Winds are gentle within the ridge axis with 2-4 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, fresh easterly winds dominate with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds dominate with 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge will meander east to west along 26N through mid week, as the tail end of a weak boundary moves eastward across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu and Fri. The ridge will build again along 25N by Sat. $$ Flynn