000 AXNT20 KNHC 130402 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 37W, south of 14N, moving west at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N, between 33W and 40W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 62W, south of 20N, moving west at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N, between 55W and 65W, including portions of Venezuela. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 78W, south of 20N, moving west at 15 knots. Convection has become much more organized over the last 24 hours. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 15N to 20N, between 75W and 82W. An area of strong thunderstorms is also observed over southern Cuba in association with this wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 86W, south of 18N, moving west at less than 5 knots. No significant convection is observed in the Caribbean associated with this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 09N22W. The ITCZ continues from 09N22W to 08N35W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues west of the wave from 07N40W to 05N52W, along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 07N, between 10W and 25W. Scattered weak convection is observed from 06N to 14N, between 47W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between a surface ridge extending from the Straits of Florida towards Texas and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting fresh southerly flow in the western Gulf. Moderate easterly winds dominate the southern Gulf, with gentle winds in the eastern basin. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft in the eastern basin. A few isolated thunderstorms are noted near the Yucatan Peninsula and northeast Gulf. For the forecast, a surface ridge extending from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast will lift north of the area through late Mon. This will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the western half of the Gulf Mon night through Wed night and mainly light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the south-central Gulf by Fri as low pressure possibly approaches from the northwest Caribbean. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea is supporting mainly fresh to strong easterly trade winds through the majority of the basin with 6-8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in the central Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. Conditions are more favorable in the lee of Cuba and the far SW portion of the basin, where winds are gentle to moderate and seas are slight. The majority of the convection in the basin is associated with the tropical wave along 78W. For the forecast, a surface ridge north of the area extending through portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico will persist through the middle of next week, north of an active monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between these features through at least mid-week. The strongest winds are expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western Caribbean by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a surface ridge extends SW from a 1030 mb high pressure in the central Atlantic near 33N43W towards south Florida. North of the ridge, winds are moderate from the south, with 3-5 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the east, with 4-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle within the ridge axis, with 2-4 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the ENE, with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are generally moderate to fresh from the NE, with 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas and into portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico will lift north of the Bahamas through the middle of the week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate S to SE winds across the region, except for fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly weaken by late Wed as the tail of a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda. $$ Flynn