000 AXNT20 KNHC 122023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 14N southward, moving westward 20 knots. A few showers are evident from 06N to 08N between 33W and 39W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 14N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over northern South America from 04N to 07N between 58W and 61W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 75W and 77W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 19N southward, drifting westward. No significant convection is evident near this wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N22W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 06N22W to 04N32W, and from 02N37W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 48W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the Straits of Florida and Florida Keys northwestward toward the coast of Texas. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate SW winds south of the ridge axis over the Bay of Campeche, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Moderate W winds are evident north of the ridge axis over the far northeast Gulf. Elsewhere light breezes and slight seas persist under the ridge axis. No significant convection is evident. For the forecast, the surface ridge will lift north of the area through late Mon. This will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the western half of the Gulf Mon night through Wed night and mainly light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the south-central Gulf by Fri as low pressure possibly approaches from the northwest Caribbean. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong surface pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea, is supporting mainly fresh to strong trade winds in the majority of the central and eastern parts of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds are in the northwest Caribbean Sea. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are near the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, where the wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the eastern and central parts of the basin, and they range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the current pattern will continue to support fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between these features into early next week. The strongest winds are expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western Caribbean by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from northeast of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted north of the ridge, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Fresh to strong E winds are ongoing south of the ridge, funneling along the coast of Hispaniola with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are noted south of the ridge axis west of 35W with 5 to 7 ft seas over the tropical Atlantic, reaching near 8 ft just east of Barbados with the help of NE to E swell. East of 35W, moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 15N, light and variable winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident farther south. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift north of the Bahamas through the middle of the week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate S to SE winds across the region, except for fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly weaken by late Wed as the tail of a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda. $$ Christensen