000 AXNT20 KNHC 121056 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to 14N with axis along 31W, moving W at roughly 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 29W and 36W. A tropical wave is to the E of the Lesser Antilles extending from 06N to 20N with axis along 52W, moving W at roughly 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 49W and 60W. A tropical wave in the Caribbean extends S of 20N with axis along 72W, moving W at roughly 15 kt. Associated convection is scattered and moderate over central Hispaniola adjacent waters and numerous strong inland over NW Venezuela and portions of northern Colombia. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends S of 18N along 84W, which has remained nearly stationary over the last 10 hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the wave is across the Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W to 08N20W where the ITCZ then begins and continues along 06N28W. The ITCZ then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N34W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 09W and 22W. For more info on convection, see the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends across the eastern half of the basin while lower pressure is W of 90W. This pattern is resulting in moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf and gentle to moderate S to SW winds E of 90W. Seas are 3-4 ft across the basin. Otherwise, a col of low pressure in the middle levels and moisture streaming from the NW Caribbean support scattered showers and isolated tstms in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge is forecast to extend all the way to Texas the next few days. This will support moderte to fresh SE to S winds across the western half of the Gulf through Wed night and mainly light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting mainly fresh to strong trade winds across the majority of the central and eastern basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. The strongest winds are near the coast of Venezuela and Colombia, where seas are 6-8 ft. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere in the eastern and central basin, and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Other than the previously discussed convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection and tstms are in the SW Caribbean from 10N to 16N between 74W and 81W associated with an active East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area extending through portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico will persist through the middle of next week, north of an active monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between these features into early next week. The strongest winds are expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Looking ahead, a trough will form over the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The weather pattern remains dominated by a ridge extending from high pressure near the Azores towards the central Bahamas. Moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4-5 ft are across the Greater Antilles offshore waters and across the Bahamas and adjacent waters. In the central and eatern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient support moderate to fresh NE to E winds with seas mainly in the 5-7 ft range. Otherwise, a surface trough is supporting scattered showers from 22N to 27N between 60W and 66W. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging extending from the north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas and into portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico will prevail through the middle of next week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate S to SE winds across the region, except for fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly weaken Wed as the tail of a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Moderate to fresh winds associated with the front are possible to affect the far northern offshore waters Wed and Thu. $$ Ramos