000 AXNT20 KNHC 111747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 22W, from 13N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 22W and 25W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 40W, from 07N to 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The Saharan Air Layer is currently inhibiting convective activity. This tropical wave is currently embedded within a Potential Vorticity Streamer (PVS). A PVS is an elongated strip of air transported southward from the midlatitudes which possesses a higher potential vorticity than the surrounding environment. A PVS can interact with tropical waves in the subtropics. These interactions may increase the sharpness of the tropical wave axis, dictate the forward motion of the tropical wave, and affect convection associated with the tropical wave. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean along 63W, from 14N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers associated with the wave are affecting the SE Caribbean, E Venezuela, and the Windward Islands. A tropical wave just exited the SW Caribbean and is now positioned along 83.5W, from 16N southward, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, likely enhanced by the extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted across the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 15N between 75W inland over Colombia and 84W along the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 11N15W to 07N21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N east of 20W. Segments of the ITCZ are from 05N24W to 07N35W and from 38W at the equator to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered showers are along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, an outflow boundary was analyzed in the NW Gulf from 28N85W to 27N86W to 27N88W, leading an area of scattered moderate convection the is observed on satellite from 26N to 28N between 85W and 88W. The boundary and convection are moving southward at around 30 kt. This convection has a history of fresh to strong winds, with higher gusts, according to observations from earlier this morning. Elsewhere in the Gulf, weak ridging extending from the subtropical Azores high supports light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the Gulf with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the surface ridge extending from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong pressure gradient between the extension of the Azores High and the East Pacific Monsoon Trough in the SW Caribbean currently supports fresh to strong trades across the south-central and SW Caribbean, with strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas are currently 6-8 ft, and are expected to build to 8-10 ft over the next couple of days as strong trades continue. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, mainly moderate trades are in force with 4-6 ft seas. Please see the Tropical Waves section for a description of convection in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist north of the area from the western Atlantic to the southeast Gulf. Farther south, the monsoon trough will persist across the far southwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse along with occasionally rough seas into early next week between these features over mainly the south-central Caribbean, and will include the Gulf of Honduras by early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Azores high centered north of the discussion area continues to dominate the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. North of 20N, light to gentle anticyclonic flow persists across the basin with 3-6 ft seas. South of 20N and west of 45W, trades are moderate to fresh with 4-7 ft seas, locally 8 ft in the strongest winds. South of 20N and east of 45W, NE winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. A surface trough is analyzed in the W Atlantic from 29N62W to 24N63W, with scattered showers noted in the vicinity of the trough axis. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift to the north of the Bahamas to along 28N by early next week. This will support mainly gentle S to SE winds across the region, except for fresh winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly weaken on Wed night as the tail of a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda. $$ Mahoney