000 AXNT20 KNHC 102114 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic along 18W, from 03N to 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 18W and 21W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 35W, from 05N to 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. African dust is currently suppressing convection with this tropical wave. Only a few showers are noted near the northern end of the wave axis. A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is along 57W, from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 56W and 60W. Moisture associated with this wave will spread across the Windward Islands tonight incresing the likelihood of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Barbados has been reported showers and gusty winds of up to 42 kt during the last hours. A low amplitude tropical wave is in the Caribbean along 73W, from 15N southward into Colombia, moving W at 10-15 kt. Convection is limited. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean likely associated with a tropical wave along 84W/85W, described in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion. Abundant tropical moisture will pertsist in this area during the weekend affecting the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua. Late Sun into Mon, the available moisture will spread westward into the Gulf of Honduras. The island of San Andres has been reported thunderstorms and gusty winds. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N18W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 07N25W to 07N33W, and from 08N41W to 04N51W. In addition to the convection described above in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 03N between 36W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough reaches across the far northeast Gulf from near Cedar Key, Florida to the mouth of the Mississippi River. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the east-central Gulf ahead of the trough, specifically from 25N to 27N east of 85W. A surface ridge is analyzed farther south, reaching from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge extending from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The major influences on the regional weather remain the subtropical ridge north of the basin, and the monsoon trough extending east to west over the far southwestern Caribbean. The main impact is fresh to occasionally strong trade wind flow that was indicated on recent scatterometer satellite and ship observations over most of the west-central Caribbean. The fresh to strong trade winds are also supporting 6 to 8 ft seas over this part of the Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for gentle SE breezes and slight seas south of Cuba. Saharan dust remains over the region, possibly causing modest haze in some areas. For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist north of the area from the western Atlantic to the southeast Gulf. Farther south, the monsoon trough will persist across the far southwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse along with occasionally rough seas into early next week between these features over mainly the south-central Caribbean, and will include the Gulf of Honduras by early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergent flow aloft ahead of an upper trough reaching from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to northeast Florida is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas, and farther south off the central Bahamas as well. A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high centered over the north-central Atlantic near 23N42W southwestward to the central Bahamas. This ridge is broken up by weak surface trough reaching from 1023 mb low pressure near 34N48W to 24N60W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active near the southern end of the trough from 22N to 24N between 60W and 63W. Moderate SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of the Bahamas and west of the ridge axis. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 6 to 8 ft are noted south of the ridge, mainly south of 20N to 22N across the tropical Atlantic west of 35W. Light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, with predominantly northerly swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift to the north of the Bahamas to along 28N by early next week. Little change elsewhere. $$ Christensen/GR