000 AXNT20 KNHC 100004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jun 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 28W/29W from 02N to 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the wave from 06N to 09N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52W south of 14N to inland Brazil near 02N It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N to 12N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm west and 30 nm east of the wave axis from 11N to 14N. The Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was along 65W south of 14N is repositioned to along 69W from 02N to 15N at 18 UTC based on diagnostic guidance and latest low to mid-level satellite-derived winds. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted over water, however, scattered moderate convection is over South America within 60 nm either side of the wave. The northern part of a southwestern Caribbean is along 83W south of 14N to across southern Costa Rica, and continues into the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is over Costa Rica. This wave has reached the eastern extent of the well established eastern Pacific monsoonal circulation. It is likely to become absorbed and non- detectable within the next 48 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coast of Guinea-Bissau at 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 09N20W and to east of a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave from 07N30W to 05N40W and to just off the coast of northern Brazil near 01N49W. Large clusters of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection are noted south of the trough from 04N to 09N east of 17W to inland Africa. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 08N between 42W- 46W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 39W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 21W-26W. The monsoon trough axis extends from the northern coast of Colombia near 11N74W to a 1010 mb low near 10N77W and to across central Panama near 09N79W. It then continues into the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is over Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered to numerous moderate convection has been ongoing across interior portions of central America and into southeast Mexico, northwestward across the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is analyzed in this area from 22N95W to 18N93W. A surface trough is also analyzed in the northeast Gulf from near Apalachee Bay to 28N88W. Another surface trough is analyzed from inland central Florida, west to near 28N85W. Another surface trough is just inland the coast of Mexico from near Tampico to just west of Veracruz. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the southwestern Gulf. Relatively fair weather conditions are elsewhere under weak high pressure. gentle to moderate return flow dominates across the basin, locally fresh west and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less east of 88W, and 2-4 ft west of 88W. Some haze is being reported across the southern and west-central Gulf coastal stations. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge extending from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging is over the Atlantic north of the Caribbean basin, while low pressure is located west of the northern Caribbean coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are present in the south- central Caribbean due to a locally tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over the southwestern Caribbean. Seas in the same area are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted, except for light and variable south of 11N in the southwest Caribbean outside of any convection. Seas are 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean and southwest Caribbean, and 4-6 ft across the remainder of the basin. A mid to upper-level trough extends from a mid to upper low that is just northeast of the Leeward Islands near 19N62W, west-southwestward to the southwestern Caribbean. Confluence to the west of the trough is maintaining rather stable atmospheric conditions across much of the basin. This is combining with Saharan air to the east of 77W to produce fair and hazy skies. The exceptions are over the interior sections of Cuba and Hispaniola where scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring. A few showers and thunderstorms are weakening over the interior of the western side of Puerto Rico. For the forecast, weak ridging north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to strong winds over much of the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun, with light to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough stretches northeastward from the Straits of Florida to an upper-level low near 26N72W and stretches northeastward to beyond 31N and Bermuda. Ample low-level moisture lingers across the area from the Bahamas to the Bermuda area. Divergent winds near and south of this upper trough axis are supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 26N between 69W-73W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are present south of 25N west of 73W to the Straits of Florida. A weak surface trough is analyzed off the coast of northern Florida from near 31N74W to just northeast of the Cape Canaveral area. Farther east, a trough that earlier was a dissipating stationary front curves southwestward from 1018 mb low pressure north of the area near 33N48W to 26N55W and to 26N60W and northwest to 28N57W. Mainly gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are north of this trough. A trough is analyzed from near 25N53W to 24N60W and southwest to 21N64W. A mid to upper-level low is noted near 19N62W. Plenty of instability near these features is sustaining scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from 18N to 24N between 56W-63W. The remainder of the open tropical Atlantic waters is dominated by ridging extending from the Azores high. Light to gentle winds are noted near the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of 20N and northwest of the monsoon trough. Winds may be slighter higher near the tropical wave that is along 28W/29W/ Fresh to strong winds are blowing from offshore Morocco through the Canary Islands to 20W along with seas of 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds continue south of 20N, with seas of 5-6 ft and locally to 8 ft. Seas of 4-6 ft are across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge roughly along 25N through the central Bahamas will lift north through late Fri, and then reach from the north-central Atlantic to the northern Bahamas through early next week. $$ Aguirre