000 AXNT20 KNHC 090555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jun 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force winds are forecast for the eastern part of the METEO-FRANCE forecast area AGADIR, until 09 June/0600 UTC. Please, refer to the following website, http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1804. 0818045237480.html, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed tropical wave is near 23W from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 09N between 20W and 25W. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 13N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 42W and 51W. Another tropical wave is near the Windward Islands from St. Lucia southward into eastern Venezuela, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found over eastern Venezuela. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 14N southward across Panama into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving west near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across western Panama, Costa Rica and nearby Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The western end of a monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal-Mauritania border to just east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 17N21W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up along the coast of Senegal, Gambia and Guinea-Bissau. An ITCZ extends from 07N25W across EQ36W to northeast of Sao Luis, Brazil at 02S42W, and from 06N48W to north of the Guyana-Suriname border at 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 250 nm northwest, and up to 100 nm southeast of the ITCZ between 25W and 35W; and also from the coast of Suriname/French Guiana to 09N. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over eastern Panama, northern Colombia and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Convergent trade winds north of the East Pacific monsoon trough are producing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the southern Bay of Campeche. A weak surface trough is triggering patchy showers near the central Gulf and northern Florida. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending west-southwestward from central Florida to near Los Lavaderos, Mexico is sustaining gentle to moderate southerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas for most of the Gulf. The exception is moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas near the coasts of Texas and the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf through the week and into the upcoming weekend, producing generally return flow west of 90W through Fri. Moderate winds within 120 nm of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh each evening through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for weather in the basin. The Atlantic ridge is sustaining a trade- wind regime across the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident over the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen across the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE trades and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will maintain a modest pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin throughout the week. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through the weekend. Fresh winds will pulse each night through the end of the week across the interior Gulf of Honduras. This ridge will strengthen north of the area over the weekend to produce fresh to strong trades across much of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough stretches northeastward from a low over the Straits of Florida to beyond 31N at 67W. Divergent winds near and south of this trough axis are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Florida Straits across the Great Bahama Bank to the southeastern Bahamas. Farther east, a weakening stationary front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N48W to 28N68W. Scattered showers are evident up to 120 nm north, and up to 50 nm south of this boundary. Just to the south, a surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection from 23N to 25N between 53W and 63W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Residual northerly swell is maintaining seas at 5 to 8 ft near the aforementioned stationary front, north of 24N between 43W and 64W. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge is promoting light to gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas north of 18N between 45W and the Bahamas/Florida coast; and also north of 20N between 35W and 45W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE trades and 7 to 9 ft seas are near the Canary Islands north of 21N between the African coast and 35W. To the southwest, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found from the northeast coast of South America to 18N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, and also from 10N to 20N between 35W and 40W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening stationary front will meander across the E waters through Thu. The Atlantic ridge will gradually strengthen across the region Fri through the weekend, producing fresh S to SW winds to the north of 28N and west of 70W. $$ Chan