000 AXNT20 KNHC 080557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 13N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 38W and 41W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 14N southward across Suriname, and moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen over Suriname. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from 13N southward into western Colombia, and moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 09N to 11N between 74W and 79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of central Senegal to 11N20W. Scattered showers are seen near the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea. An ITCZ extends from 05N17W across 03N27W to 07N37W, then from 06N42W to just east of Calcoene, Brazil at 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 130 nm to the north, and 110 nm to the south of the ITCZ axis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough extends from northern Florida to the central Gulf. This feature is coupling with convergent southerly winds to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida, including the Florida Keys. Enhanced by divergent winds aloft, a surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate easterly with locally fresh winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist in the south-central and southeastern Gulf. Farther north, a surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1017 mb high near the Florida Panhandle to near Los Lavaderos, Mexico. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are present over the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to SSE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas exist for the west- central and northwestern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate most of the Gulf through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the western half of the basin on Wed, then light to gentle winds will prevail. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh over the Bay of Campeche each night through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection over the southeastern basin, off the Nicaragua coast. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the basin. A large Bermuda High is sustaining a trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Fresh to strong ENE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are evident for the south-central basin, north of Venezuela and Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda High will maintain a modest pressure gradient, which should prolong moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin throughout the week and into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through Sat. Fresh winds will pulse each night through the end of the week across the interior Gulf of Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front runs southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N50W to 27N55W, then curves northwestward as a stationary front to 30N69W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted up to 100 nm south, and 200 nm north of this boundary. Gentle to moderate winds are seen near this boundary but northerly swell is maintaining 8 to 11 ft seas north of 27N between 52W and 62W. Farther west, a surface trough reaches northeastward from central Florida to near 31N76W. Combining with an upper-level trough in the vicinity, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up across the NW Bahamas and eastward to 71W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail west of 62W from the Bahamas northward. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A broad Atlantic ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores High across 31N36W to the Bahamas. This feature is supporting moderate to fresh with locally strong NE trades and 7 to 9 ft seas north of 18N between the NW African coast and 30W. To the west, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found north of 8N between 30W and 44W. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present north of 8N between 44W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough along about 25N will drift S and linger across the E waters through Thu. High pressure will strengthen across the region by Sat to produce fresh S to SW winds to the north of 27N and west of 70W. $$ Chan