000 AXNT20 KNHC 071059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jun 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 31W and south of 13N. The wave is moving westward near 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed S of 08.5N and between 29W and 38W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 48W, south of 13N and moving westward near 20-25 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 10N and between 43W and 58W along the coast of NE South America. The axis of a tropical wave is along 68W, south of 14N and over western Venezuela, and moving westward near 15-20 knots. No convection is noted near the wave axis, while scattered moderate to strong convection is well inland over Venezuela S of 04N within 120 nm of axis. A Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 83W, south of 13N and extends across Costa Rica and into the tropical eastern Pacific. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09.5N to 14.5N between the coast of Colombia and the NE coast of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near the coast of Senegal near 12N16W and continues to 11N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N14W to 06N30W and then from 06N33W to 04.5N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 08N between 10W and 19W. other information on convection is discussed in the tropical waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico and fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. Nocturnal convection across SE Mexico has recently moved into the waters of the Bay of Campeche just offshore of the coast of the state of Tabasco. A mid level trough extending from Post- Tropical Cyclone Alex over the NW Atlantic, reaches across South Florida and into the SE Gulf. The convergent low-level winds continue to create a plume of tropical moisture from the Se Gulf across southern Florida and the NW Bahamas, where middle level dynamics are generating a few showers and isolated thunderstorms just to the north of the Lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas and extend southward over the Straits of Florida. A modest pressure gradient exists in the western Gulf between the weak high pressure near Florida and lower pressures over Mexico and Texas. Surface observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to locally strong SE winds are occurring primarily W of 94W. The strongest winds are noted off south Texas, mainly within 60 nm of the coast. Moderate easterly winds are present offshore northern Yucatan, while light to gentle breezes are prevalent elsewhere. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted W of 94W and 1-3 ft in the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will prevail in the west-central and NW Gulf through this morning due to a locally tight pressure gradient, before diminishing. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern Yucatan coast Wed evening. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected with the high pressure regime. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent low-level winds are producing active convection described above in the SW Caribbean Sea, occurring behind a tropical wave. The subtropical ridge, centered SW of the Azores, extends to the central Bahamas and is producing a moderate pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures over northern South America. Recent scatterometer satellite data captured fresh to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and NW Venezuela. Seas in the region are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the rest of the central Caribbean and eastern portion of the basin, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are observed in the NW Caribbean, where scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring across western Cuba and the adjacent Caribbean coastal waters. Light to gentle winds prevail in the SW Caribbean, to the south of the monsoon trough along 11.5N. Seas in the waters discussed are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the Atlc ridge extends from the eastern Atlc west- southwest to the central Bahamas, and will maintain a modest pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin throughout the week and into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex has merged with a frontal system across the NW Atlantic near 39N53W overnight and is quickly NE. However, a surface trough extends from this system, entering the basin near 31N58W and continuing southwestward to the NW Bahamas, then across South Florida and into the SE Gulf. Ample tropical moisture is streaming northeast and eastward, to the south of this trough, where scattered moderate strong convection is present from 23N to 29N between 75W and 80W, while scattered moderate convection is elsewhere N of 25N between 65W and 75W. A cold front precedes the trough across the northern waters from 31N52W to 28N56W. A 90 nm wide line of moderate convection is shifting eastward between the trough and the front. Winds W of 65W are light to moderate, although stronger winds are likely with the heaviest convection across the northern Bahamas. Seas in that area are 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong W-SW winds are between the cold front and 65W. Seas in these waters are 8-15 ft, with highest seas near 31N57W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned SW of the Azores, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over NW Africa and the deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong NE winds S of a line from 31N20W near the Canary Islands to 17N61W near the Lesser Antilles. The strongest winds are occurring offshore Western Sahara, Morocco and the waters surrounding the Canary Islands. NE-E swell has been producing seas of 6-9 ft across most of the central and eastern Atlantic. Highest seas are found W of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 17N30W. Winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas within the ridge axis and through the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and high seas associated with Post-tropical Alex will continue to affect the NE zones, with wind diminishing this morning and seas gradually subsiding through mid-week. High pressure extends westward and south of the torugh into the central Bahamas. This surface trough will linger across the NE waters through Thu. High pressure will strengthen across the waters west of 55W by Sat and help to produce fresh to strong S to SW winds across the NW waters. $$ Stripling