000 AXNT20 KNHC 070502 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jun 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 29W and south of 13N based on recent scatterometer satellite data. The wave is moving westward near 20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed S of 09N and between 24W and 37W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 46W, south of 14N and moving westward near 20-25 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 40W and the coast of NE South America. The axis of a tropical wave is along 66W, south of 13N and over central Venezuela, and moving westward near 15-20 knots. A few showers are noted near the trough axis over Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues to 10N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N20W to 06N28W and then from 05N30W to 05N45W and another segment is found from 04N47W to 03N51W. Information on the convection is discussed in the tropical waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico and fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. However, a surface trough associated with a long rainband extending from Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex over the NW Atlantic, reaches across South Florida and into the SE Gulf. The convergent low-level winds is generating a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Straits of Florida. A pressure gradient exists in the western Gulf between the weak high pressure near Florida and lower pressures over Mexico and Texas. Surface observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to locally strong SE winds are occurring primarily W of 94W. The strongest winds are noted off south Texas, mainly within 60 nm of the coast. Moderate easterly winds are present offshore northern Yucatan, while light to gentle breezes are prevalent elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted W of 94W and 1-3 ft in the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh SE-S return flow will prevail in the west-central and NW Gulf through Tue morning due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern Yucatan coast Wed evening. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected with the high pressure regime. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent low-level winds are producing a few showers in the SW Caribbean Sea, especially offshore NW Colombia and Nicaragua. The subtropical ridge positioned SW of the Azores extends into the Caribbean Sea and a pressure gradient persists between this system and lower pressures over northern South America. Recent scatterometer satellite data captured fresh to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and NW Venezuela. Seas in the region are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the rest of the central Caribbean and eastern portion of the basin, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are observed in the NW Caribbean and light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Seas in the waters discussed are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the Atlc ridge extends from the eastern Atlc west- southwest to the SE Bahamas, and will maintain a modest pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin throughout the week and into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex is quickly moving away from the western tropical Atlantic as it traverses the waters of the NW Atlantic. However, a surface trough extends from this system, entering the basin near 31N62W and continuing southwestward to the NW Bahamas, South Florida and into the SE Gulf. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 24N to 29N and W of 75W, affecting the NW Bahamas and surrounding waters. Winds W of 65W are light to moderate, although stronger winds are likely with the heaviest storms. Seas in the area are 4-7 ft. Fresh to strong W-SW winds are found N of a line from 31N50W to 26N61W to 31N64W. Seas in these waters are 8-16 ft. Highest seas are occurring near 31N60W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned SW of the Azores, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over NW Africa and the deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong NE winds S of a line from 31N20W near the Canary Islands to 17N61W near the Lesser Antilles. The strongest winds are occurring offshore Western Sahara, Morocco and the waters surrounding the Canary Islands. NE-E swell has been producing seas of 6-9 ft across most of the central and eastern Atlantic. Highest seas are found W of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 17N30W. Winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas within the ridge axis and through the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and high seas associated with Post-tropical Alex will continue to affect the NE zones, with wind diminishing by early Tue and seas gradually subsiding through mid-week. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas to the south of Alex. A surface trough will linger across the NE waters through Thu. $$ Delgado