000 AXNT20 KNHC 062235 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jun 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post- Tropical Cyclone Alex is centered near 35.5N 60.6W at 06/2100 UTC or 280 nm NE of Bermuda moving ENE at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. There is no deep convection near the center of Alex, with scattered moderate convection well NE of the center of Alex. Alex is moving quickly toward the east-northeast. Another non- tropical low pressure area is expected to develop NE of Alex tonight, with Alex then merging with that area of low pressure within the next 24 hours or so. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 01N to 13N, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 26W and 31W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W, from 01N to 12N, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 40W and 46W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, from 13N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong is inland, in parts of Brazil and Venezuela. The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 13N between 78W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 11N14W and extends to 08N17W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 06N27W. It continues from 06N29W to 04N42W, then from 04N44W to 04N49W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 10W and 15W, and from 02N to 08N between 46W and 56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters. Moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow prevails over the western Gulf, with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the waters west of 94W, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh SE-S return flow will be in the west-central and NW Gulf through Tue morning due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern Yucatan coast Wed evening. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected with the high pressure. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the Atlc ridge from the eastern Atlc west- southwest to the SE Bahamas, will maintain a modest pressure gradient across the area. This will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin throughout the week and into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Post- Tropical Cyclone Alex, centered north of the area. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure dominates the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N. Fresh to near gale winds, and seas of 8-15 ft, continue in association to Alex over the waters north of 29N between 57W and 65W. Light to gentle winds cover the waters west of 70W, and gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere west of 40W. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail east of 40W. Seas of 8-15 ft that were generated by Alex continue elsewhere north of 27N between 65W and 73W. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail elsewhere north of 20N west of 50W, and north of 25N east of 50W. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast, associated high seas of Post-tropical Alex will continue to affect the NE zones, gradually subsiding through mid- week. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas to the south of Alex. A surface trough will linger across the NE waters through Thu. $$ AL