160 AXNT20 KNHC 061156 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jun 6 2022 Updated Special Features for 1200 UTC Information Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Alex is centered near 33.8N 65.1W at 06/1200 UTC or 90 nm NNW of Bermuda moving ENE at 24 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. As of 0900 UTC, seas of 12 ft seas and higher extend into the area waters up to 270 nm to the SE and 300 nm to the SW. Buoy 41048 near 32N70W reported peak wave heights to 30 ft earlier overnight. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern semicircle to 60W, while the center of Alex remains an exposed low level cloud swirl devoid of significant convection. A trailing rainband extends SW producing scattered moderate convection across the central and SE Bahamas and to central Cuba. The center of the tropical storm is expected to pass just north of Bermuda this morning. Alex is forecast to begin to weaken today as it interacts with a middle to upper level low center to it's NE, and the system is expected to become an extratropical low by this afternoon or evening. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda today, and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island through this afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 24W, south of 12N and moving westward at 20-25 knots. Isolated convection is noted within 120 nm of the wave. A tropical wave is analyzed along 38W, south of 12N and moving westward at 20-25 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the wave from 02N to 06.5N between 37W and 42W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 61W, south of 13N, and moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the wave axis S of 11N and extends well inland over NE South America and offshore waters. A tropical wave is analyzed along 79W/80W, south of 13N into the eastern Pacific and western Colombia, and moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered strong showers and thunderstorms are S of 12N across the Caribbean waters and area also affecting the Caribbean coasts of Panama and Colombia and along their Pacific coasts N of 03N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends to 06N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N25W to 04.5N37W and then resumes from 04.5N39W to 03.5N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 03N to the coast of Africa between 07W and 17W. Scattered showers are seen on satellite imagery within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 42W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between 1011 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf and lower pressures over Mexico and Texas is resulting in moderate to fresh SE winds over the western portion of the basin, especially W of 95W. Seas in this area have built to 3-5 ft in recent hours. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-2 ft prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Tue, allowing moderate to fresh return flow to set up across the western Gulf. A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Low-level convergence associated with a long rainband extending from Tropical Storm Alex supports scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across central Cuba, and has become more isolated in the past few hours extending SW to north of the Cayman Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted near the coast of Panama. The rest of the Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Overnight scatterometer satellite data captured fresh to strong trades in the central and SE Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore northern Colombia and NW Venezuela. Seas is the described waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are present remainder of the eastern Caribbean with seas of 3-6 ft. Light to locally moderate trades and seas of 2-4 ft are observed elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the Atlc ridge will maintain a modest pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Alex. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Alex, and the convergent band of convection extending to the SW, the remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system positioned near 32N31W, maintaining tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted on satellite-derived wind data south of a line from 31N23W to the Leeward Islands, covering most of the central and eastern Atlantic. The strongest winds are found offshore western Africa, especially near and north of the Cabo Verde Islands and E of 25W. Seas over the region described are 6-9 ft. Winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas within the ridge axis and through the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, Topical Storm Alex will continue to race ENE and remain N of the area. Strong to Tropical Storm force SW winds and high seas will continue to affect the NE zones today then gradually diminish tonight. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas to the south of Alex. A surface trough will linger across the NE waters through Thu. $$ Stripling/Lewitsky