000 AXNT20 KNHC 051803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jun 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 05/1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Alex is located near 30.4N, 73.9W, or about 480 nm W of Bermuda. Alex is moving ENE, or 60 degrees, at 20 knots. The minimum central pressure is 993 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. 12 ft seas extend up to 150 nm in the eastern semicircle. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection extends about 300 nm east of the center. A few trailing rainbands are producing scattered moderate convection south of the storm in the NW Caribbean. Alex is expected to continue ENE, passing near or just north of Bermuda on Monday afternoon. Some slight strengthening is possible, by Alex is not expected to reach hurricane strength before the system gradually weakens and transitions to an extra- tropical cyclone by Tuesday. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 16W from the equator to 13N, moving westward at 25 knots. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 09N between 11W and 20W. An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 32W from the equator to 11N, moving westward at 25 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06N between 30W and 33W. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong ENE winds within the convection area ahead of the wave axis. An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 55W from the equator to 12N, moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 76W from the 01N to 13N, moving westward at 10 knots. Isolated moderate convection is observed in the SW Caribbean from 08N to 13N between 73W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 04N34W to 03N51W along the coast of NE Brazil. The majority of the deep tropical Atlantic convection is associated with the tropical waves discussed above. Isolated weak convection is observed throughout the area. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure with a relaxed gradient is leading to favorable conditions across the Gulf. Mainly clear skies, gentle winds and slight seas dominate the basin. A small area of isolated thunderstorms is observed off the coast of Louisiana. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Tue, allowing moderate to fresh return flow to set up across the western Gulf. High pressure will weaken Wed through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed across the NW Caribbean from 22N83W to 16N85W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed between 90 and 210 nm east of this feature. Winds are light to gentle behind the trough with 1-3 ft seas. Southerly winds are moderate to fresh ahead of the trough, with 3-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle in the SW Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas. Winds are moderate to fresh in the central and eastern basin with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure extends from the E Atlantic W-SW to the Bahamas and will maintain a modest pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin through mid week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the south-central Caribbean tonight through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Alex. Tropical storm Alex dominates the western Atlantic. Outside of this influence, a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 30N33W is the main feature in the eastern and central basin. A ridge extends from this feature towards 25N50W. The gradient between this feature, and lower pressure over Africa and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, is generating moderate to fresh NE winds south of the ridge. Recent scatterometer data found locally strong NE winds along the coast of Western Sahara. Seas south of the ridge are 7-9 ft. Winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas within the ridge axis and through the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Alex near 30.4N 74.0W 993 mb at 11 AM EDT moving ENE at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Alex will move to 31.7N 70.8W this evening, N of the area near 33.1N 66.4W Mon morning, 34.2N 61.7W Mon evening, become extratropical and move to 34.6N 57.4W Tue morning, 34.9N 53.4W Tue evening, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 35.0N 50.3W Wed morning. Alex will change little in intensity as it moves to near 35.5N 47.0W early Thu. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas to the south of Alex through early Tue then weaken through Wed night. $$ Flynn