000 AXNT20 KNHC 040525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jun 04 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE, at 04/0300 UTC, is near 24.5N 83.7W, or about 170 nm/315 km NNE of the western tip of Cuba, and about 159 nm/295 km SW of Fort Myers in Florida. The low pressure center is moving NE, or 045 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in clusters covers the waters and land areas from the Straits of Florida to the NW Bahamas, and in the waters that are between the Cayman Islands and NW Cuba. Other clusters of rainshowers are in parts of western Nicaragua, NE Nicaragua, the eastern half of Honduras, from east central Guatemala into the western sections of Honduras, and off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from 18N to 20N. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other rainshowers are within 360 nm on either side of the line that runs from El Salvador to 31N78W. The Potential Tropical Cyclone will continue to produce heavy rains in western Cuba tonight. Heavy rainfall will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, South Florida, and Central Florida, from tonight through Saturday. The system should move across the southern and the central sections of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean to the north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday through Sunday. No change in status or strength is expected before the disturbance moves across Florida. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center, and strengthen slightly, late this weekend and early next week in the western Atlantic Ocean. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 11N southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the Caribbean Sea from 16N southward between 60W and 70W, possibly not related to the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Venezuela on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 08N20W and 06N31W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 12W and 18W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area from 10N southward from 30W eastward, and in the remainder of the area that is from 12N southward between 30W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm strength winds cover the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The southerly flow in Cuba is fetch-limited. The seas still are building as high as 11 feet currently in the southeast Gulf. A large middle level to upper level trough, that stretches from the Florida Panhandle to the far southwestern Gulf is keeping the remainder of the basin dry, and providing decent westerly shear on top of the Potential Tropical Cyclone. Moderate to fresh NE to E wind, and 3 to 5 foot seas, are in the central and northeastern Gulf. Light N breezes, and 2 to 4 foot seas, are in the western Gulf. Potential Tropical Cyclone One near 24.5N 83.7W 1003 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, occurring across the eastern semicircle. One will move NE overnight and reach near the SW coast of Florida Sat morning near 25.8N 82.0W as a Tropical Storm, then move NE across Florida on Sat, and exit into the W Atlc near 28.4N 78.8W Sat evening, then accelerate to the NE through Sun night. Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf after the exit of PTC One. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Strong southerly winds, and local areas reaching minimal tropical storm force, are occurring in the far northwestern Caribbean Sea from 20N northward, to include along the southern coast of NW Cuba. Seas are reaching as high as 9 feet in this area. Fresh SE to S winds are elsewhere from 15N northward between Jamaica and 85W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds, and 3 to 5 foot seas cover much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The exception is: light breezes and slight seas in the far SW Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall has been reaching much of western Cuba, adding to large accumulations in much of western and central Cuba and the Isle of Youth during the past 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One near 24.5N 83.7W 1003 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. One will continue NE overnight and reach the SW coast of Florida Sat morning near 25.8N 82.0W, move across south central Florida on Sat, reach near 28.4N 78.8W Sat evening, and then accelerate off to the NE through late Sun. Strong southerly winds and high seas will continue across the NW Caribbean and south of west and central Cuba through early Sat afternoon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean basin Sun through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 32N67W. An upper level trough extends from an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N63W, to 25N58W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 20N northward between 52W and 70W. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 32N29W, to 29N34W 26N47W 24N67W 29N80W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward, away from the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 32N67W. Mostly gentle to moderate winds, and 3 to 5 foot seas, are from 20N northward. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds, and 5 to 7 foot seas, are from 20N southward. Potential Tropical Cyclone One across the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24.5N 83.7W 1003 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. One continue NE overnight and reach the SW coast of Florida Sat morning as a Tropical Storm near 25.8N 82.0W, move NE across south central Florida on Sat and reach near 28.4N78.8W Sat evening, then accelerate to the NE and intensify modestly, reaching near 30.7N 75.7W Sun morning, and near 32.3N 72.0W Sun evening. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas Tue. $$ mt/ss