000 AXNT20 KNHC 032344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jun 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 23.0N 85.8W at 03/2100 UTC, or 300 nm SW of Ft. Myers Florida moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. An increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Sat, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late Sat through Sun. The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will also affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Florida Keys through Sat, and affect northwestern Bahamas tonight through Sat. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, likely enhanced by the nearby ITCZ, is from 03N to 07N between 31W and 34W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is mainly inland over north-central Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra-Leone near 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 05N28W then resumes from 06N33W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 02N to 06N east of 17W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 90 nm of the African coast from 05N to 08N between 12W and 14W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, currently located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm strength winds cover the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the east side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The southerly flow over Cuba is fetch-limited, but seas are still building as high as 11 ft currently over the southeast Gulf. Large clusters of thunderstorms are active over the far southeastern Gulf as well, impacting northwest Cuba, the Florida Keys, and much of South Florida. A large mid/upper trough reaching from the Florida Panhandle to the far southwest Gulf is keeping the remainder of the basin dry, and providing decent westerly shear over the potential tropical cyclone. Moderate to fresh NE to E wind and 3 to 5 ft seas are over the central and northeast Gulf. Light N breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are over the western Gulf. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move east of the basin overnight, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the southeast Gulf through Sat. Quiescent conditions will follow across the Gulf into early next week as high pressure builds across the central Gulf. The high pressure will shift east of the basin Mon and Tue, allowing moderate to fresh SE return flow over the northwest Gulf into mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located of the Yucatan Channel. Strong southerly winds, along with local areas reaching minimal tropical storm, are occurring over the far northwest Caribbean north of 20N to include along the southern coast of western Cuba. Seas are reaching as high as 9 ft in this area as well. Fresh SE to S winds are noted elsewhere north of 15N west of Jamaica to 85W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas persist elsewhere except for light breezes and slight seas over the far southwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident near the Isle of Youth. Heavy rainfall persist over much of western Cuba, adding to large accumulations over much of western and central Cuba and the Isle of Youth over the past 24 hours. For the forecast, on the forecast track, the Potential Tropical Cyclone One should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, and across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. Strong southerly winds and high seas will continue across the NW Caribbean and south of west and central Cuba through early Sat afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1010 mb low pressure is centered north of the area near 32N67W. This is north of where an upper is low is centered near 28N64W. A few thunderstorms associated with the upper low are active from 28N to 30N between 60W and 65W. Farther east, a 1025 mb high pressure is centered southwest of the Azores near 31N30W. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 20N, and moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 20N. For the forecast, on the forecast track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One should move across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday through Sunday. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas Tue. $$ Christensen