000 AXNT20 KNHC 020555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jun 02 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The NW Caribbean Sea: A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 19.5N87W, about 45 nm to the east of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from from 14N northward from the Windward Passage westward. Scattered moderate to strong in clusters is in the waters from Jamaica westward from 14N northward, and inland in the Yucatan Peninsula. Clouds and precipitation are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 23N southward. A middle level to upper level trough is on top of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gradual development of this system is forecast. This feature is likely to become a tropical depression, while it moves slowly northeastward, through the NW Caribbean Sea and the SE Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. locally heavy rainfall is likely in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so, with the rain amounts spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Anyone who has interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please, refer to the latest Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 13N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are in South America, from 05N southward between 55W and 59W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 13N southward, between 49W at the western end of the ITCZ and the 57W/58W tropical wave A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 12N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are in Colombia, from 04N to 09N between 73W and 77W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 09N16W, to 04N30W, 07N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a 1004 mb low pressure center that is just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This feature has a high potential for tropical cyclone formation. A surface ridge extends from a 1015 mb eastern Alabama high pressure center, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, near 19N96W at the coast of Mexico. Light to gentle E breezes, and 2 to 4 foot waves, are in the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Alabama high pressure and developing broad NW Caribbean Sea low pressure, is supporting moderate to fresh E breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas. Precipitation that is to the south of the line 26N81W 26N90W 24N98W, is related to the developing low pressure that is in the NW Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Gradual development is forecast, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Expect for shower and thunderstorm activity to increase in the southeastern and south-central Gulf sections through Sat. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf. This will maintain moderate to fresh easterly winds over the western and central Gulf waters through late tonight. Winds in the central Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche become fresh northeast winds Thu through Fri night in response to the expected tropical cyclone. The pressure gradient, between the high pressure and lower pressure west of the area, will strengthen some starting Sun, allowing for fresh return flow to set up in the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a 1004 mb low pressure center that is just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This feature has a high potential for tropical cyclone formation. The surface pressure gradient, between the Bermuda high pressure, and the SPECIAL FEATURES 1004 mb low pressure center, is supporting fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in the northwest and west central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are in the SW corner of the area. Gentle to moderate easterly winds, 4 to 6 foot sea heights, are in the central sections. Gentle easterly tradewinds, and seas of 3 to 4 feet, are in the eastern part of the area. A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Gradual development is forecast, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Very active weather will continue in the northwestern Caribbean into the weekend. Otherwise, generally moderate to fresh trades will continue through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves along 30N76W 25N76W 22N78W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from Hispaniola and Cuba northward from 70W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are from 25N southward between 70W and 80W, and within 450 nm to the east of the surface trough. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 31N34W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward from 64W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds, and 2 to 4 foot seas, are in most of the waters from 55W westward. Expect gentle to moderate winds north of 20N; and moderate to fresh trade winds more to the south, with mostly 5 to 7 foot seas east of 55W. A mid to upper-level low north of the NW Bahamas is is enhancing scattered shower and thunderstorms activity east and northeast of the Bahamas. A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to undergo gradual development. It is likely to become a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it tracks northeastward. This approaching system will likely impact much of the area beginning late Fri night and possibly into Mon. Weak high pressure over the area will shift to the eastern part of the area by early next week in response to the low pressure system. $$ MT/JA