000 AXNT20 KNHC 311130 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue May 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 02N to 14N. It is moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is within 300 nm east of the wave and west of the wave to 52W from 04N to 07N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere from 05N to 09N within 180 nm west and 120 nm east of the wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 66W south of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted, only isolated showers are possible east of the wave in the trade wind flow. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 11N15W and continues to 05N20W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N30W to the Equator at 32W and to 02S36W and to 02S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the trough within 30 nm of a line from 04N15W to 04N21W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-30W, and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure extends from the western Atlantic westward to across central Florida and to the central Gulf of Mexico, where it weakens from there west to Texas. Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf, reaching fresh to locally strong near the Yucatan Channel. The wave heights range from 4-6 ft in the western half of the Gulf to 5-7 ft in the central Gulf, to 3-5 ft in the Bay of Campeche and in the southeastern Gulf. Abundant Pacific moisture, mainly at the mid and upper-levels being transported eastward via a strong subtropical jet stream branch is over the southern half of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection associated to eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Agatha that is presently inland southern Mexico near 16.8N 95.5W as of 0900 UTC is confined to the eastern and central Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere over these waters. For the forecast, the high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to across the central Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds over the western and central Gulf and mainly gentle SE winds elsewhere through the period. Fresh to strong southeast winds offshore Veracruz will diminish by early this afternoon. A large area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and northwestern Caribbean Sea by mid-week. This system could become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week. There is uncertainty with this expected system, however, shower and thunderstorm activity as well as winds will be on the increase for some areas of the southern and central Gulf going into the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous moderate to strong convection moving quickly eastward is over the far western Caribbean from 16N to 19N west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras. This activity appears to be part of a large area of low pressure that is setting up over the northwestern Caribbean, and west from there to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 82W, and south of 11N between the coast of northwest Colombia and southern Panama. The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough protrudes into this part of the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers moving westward in the trade wind flow are possible east of about 75W. The surface pressure gradient, between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia, is supporting fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds also are in the far western Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere. The wave heights range from 6-8 f in the central Caribbean Sea, to 5-7 feet in the far western Caribbean Sea and 4-6 feet elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Wed evening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean into late week. A large area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and northwestern Caribbean Sea by mid-week. This system could become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week. There is uncertainty with this expected system, however, shower and thunderstorm activity as well as winds will be on the increase for the northwestern Caribbean late this week and into the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure, anchored by 1021 mb high center north of the at 33N70W, is present over the western half of the area. Abundant moisture persists here as a large mid to upper-level low persists just northeast of the northeast Florida coast this morning. Plenty of instability produced by this feature continues to sustain pockets of scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the area west of about 70W, except in the far northwest corner of the discussion area where dry air there is inhibiting deep convection from developing. A central Atlantic surface trough is analyzed from near 31N58W to 27N59W and to 23N60W. Isolated showers moving in a general westward motion are seen from 22N to 31N between 55W-62W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms moving to the southeast are northeast of this trough within 30 nm of a line from 30N56W to north of the area near 33N53W. An eastern Atlantic cold front enters the area through 31N17W, and continues southwestward to 28N20W, to 24N30W, then begins to weaken from there as it curves in a northwesterly direction to 25N35W and to 31N39W. A large north swell set following in behind the front is producing seas of 8-12 ft over those waters. Broken to overcast mid and upper-level clouds along with scattered to broken low clouds underneath are within 60-90 nm either side of the front. Isolated showers and/or rain area may be occurring within these clouds. Overnight scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds near the aforementioned 1021 mb high center. Gentle to moderate trade winds are north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of 20N. The wave heights are in the 2-4 ft range north of 27N, and west of 60W. Higher wave heights in the range of 4-7 ft elsewhere in the discussion area, except for heights of 3-5 ft between the Bahamas and 70W. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will change little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. The previously mentioned mid to upper-level low over the southeastern U.S. will help to maintain an active weather pattern over most of the western part of the area through the rest of the week. The low pressure that is setting up in the vicinity of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to track northeastward as a potential tropical cyclone late this week, possibly affecting the western forecast waters late in the week and into the weekend. There is uncertainty with its eventual track and strength. Winds will pulse fresh north of Hispaniola into Tue. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the region through early Thu. $$ Aguirre