000 AXNT20 KNHC 310604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue May 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 14N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 05N to 07N between 41W and 44W; from 03N to 05N between 44W and 47W; and from 02N to 05N between 48W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 420 nm elsewhere to the west of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 13N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from Hispaniola and Puerto Rico southward between 60W and 70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N17W, and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 04N29W, to the Equator along 32W, to 02S36W, and 02S41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 600 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, from 40W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through central Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf, reaching fresh to locally strong near the Yucatan Channel. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the western half of the area. The wave heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the eastern half of the area, except to 5 feet in the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: numerous strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, between 93W and 96W, with Tropical Storm Agatha, downgraded from a hurricane, at 31/0300 UTC. Widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, are in Central America from Honduras and Guatemala to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, in a broad area of surface low pressure. High pressure, extending from the western Atlantic Ocean to the central Gulf of Mexico, will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds in the western and central Gulf of Mexico, and mainly gentle SE winds elsewhere through the period. Winds may increase to locally strong offshore Veracruz tonight. A large area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and northwestern Caribbean Sea by mid-week. A tropical depression could form in the southeastern Gulf or in the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the week. There is uncertainty with this expected system, however, shower and thunderstorm activity as well as winds will be on the increase for some areas of the southern and central Gulf going into the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Precipitation: numerous strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, between 93W and 96W, with Tropical Storm Agatha, downgraded from a hurricane, at 31/0300 UTC. Widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, are in Central America from Honduras and Guatemala to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, in a broad area of surface low pressure. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and multilayered moisture, cover the area that is to the west of the line that is from Hispaniola to Panama. The surface pressure gradient, between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia, is supporting fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds also are in the far western Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the central Caribbean Sea; from 5 feet to 7 feet in the far western Caribbean Sea; and from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. The subtropical ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Wed evening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean into late week. A large area of low pressure may form in the northwestern Caribbean by mid-week. A tropical depression could form in the southeastern Gulf or northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the week. There is uncertainty with this expected system, however, shower and thunderstorm activity as well as winds will be on the increase for the northwestern Caribbean late this week and into the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 31N58W 26N59W 25N60W 23N61W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 70W westward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the surface trough westward. A cold front passes through 31N17W to 29N20W 25N30W, curving to 31N39W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 135 nm on either side of the cold front. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 35N71W. Light to gentle winds are near the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere to the north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of 20N. The wave heights are in the 2-3 ft range north of 27N, and west of 60W. The cold front has ushered in a set of northerly swell, with wave heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet to the north of the cold front. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere in the discussion area. The subtropical ridge will change little in the western Atlantic Ocean through the next few days. An upper trough just northwest of the area will help to maintain an active weather pattern over most of the western part of the area through the rest of the week. Winds will pulse fresh north of Hispaniola into Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will continue in the remainder of the region through early Thu. $$ MT/JA