000 AXNT20 KNHC 302232 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue May 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W from 02N to 14N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 09N between 35W and 45W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, south of 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated to the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 10N14W and extends to 09N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N40W. It resumes west of a tropical wave near 03N43W to 00N50W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 10W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the Gulf, reaching fresh to locally strong near Yucatan channel. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the western Gulf and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf except to 5 ft in the Yucatan channel. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to across the central Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds over the western and central Gulf and mainly gentle SE winds elsewhere through the period. Winds may increase to locally strong offshore Veracruz tonight. A large area of low pressure may impact the southern Gulf for the latter half of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted over the far western Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the far western Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela into Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean into late week. A large area of low pressure may form in the far NW Caribbean late this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A series of surface troughs lies across the western Atlantic. One extends from 31N78W to central Florida, with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection in the vicinity of the trough. A second trough extends from 31N65W to 27N70W. Isolated moderate convection is near the southern part of the trough axis. A third trough extends from 31N58W to 27N60W. Isolated moderate convection is located within 60 nm east of the trough. High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 30N61W, and a second area of high pressure is centered near 31N46W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high centers, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of 20N. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range north of 27N and west of 60W. A cold front enters the waters from 31N19W to 26N33W. This front has ushered in a set of northerly swell, with seas in the 8-11 ft range north of the front. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 65W, the subtropical ridge will change little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak trough over the Bahamas and bring a broad area of showers and thunderstorms to the western portions of the area into mid- week. Winds will pulse fresh north of Hispaniola into Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the region through mid-week. $$ AL