000 AXNT20 KNHC 300500 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon May 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 35W, south of 14W and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present near the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed along 59W, south of 12N and moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and extends to 09N17W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N17W to 06N33W and then from 05N37W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm on both of the ITCZ between 18W and 33W and also between 37W to 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface troughs over the SE Gulf and the eastern Bay of Campeche result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting those portions of the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the basin is dominated by a weak 1015 mb high pressure near Tampa, Florida. The pressure gradient between this local high pressure and lower pressures over Mexico support moderate to locally fresh SE winds across the western Gulf waters, especially W of 93W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft are present in the western, south-central and SE Gulf, while 1-3 ft seas are noted in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to across the central Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf and mainly gentle SE winds elsewhere through the period. Winds may increase to locally strong off the Texas coast tonight. A large area of low pressure may impact the southern Gulf by around mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms stretches from northern Panama to Nicaragua and weak showers dot the NW Caribbean. Fairly tranquil weather conditions are found in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia is producing fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the eastern Caribbean, while weaker winds are present in the NW and SW Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the central basin and 2-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela into mid-week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean into mid- week. A large area of low pressure may form in the far NW Caribbean late this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft provided by an upper level trough over the SE United States support a surface trough off Florida and result in a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the Bahamas, Florida and surrounding waters, especially W of 73W. Latest scatterometer wind data suggest that some of these storms are producing fresh to strong winds. The subtropical high over the central Atlantic dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic, permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh trades off northern Hispaniola and SE Bahamas, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas of 3-6 ft are noted W of 55W. Farther east, a cold front enters the basin near 31N18W and continues southwestward to 25N29W, where it transitions into a stationary front to 23N39W. No deep convection is present near this frontal boundary. Moderate too locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring behind the front. Farther south, moderate to fresh trades are affecting the waters S of 20N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Easterly swell in this region of the basin is producing seas of 4-7 ft. Winds are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak trough is expected to form near the NW and central Bahamas by mid-week, then lift northeastward Thu and Thu night. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas into Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the region into mid-week. $$ Delgado