000 AXNT20 KNHC 291658 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun May 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 32W from 02N to 14W is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the southern portion of the wave from 04N to 06N between 30W-34W. A tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 12N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N15W to 05N29W where the flow is disrupted by a tropical wave. West of the wave, the ITCZ resumes from 04N34W to the equator at 50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N and between 12W and 29W and from 02N to 04N between 37W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between weak high pressure over the NE Gulf and lower pressure over Mexico is generating gentle to moderate S-SE flow across the basin. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less, with buoys reporting 3-5 ft seas within 120 nm of Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over the SE basin due to an abundance of tropical moisture. For the forecast, a stationary front along the northern Gulf coast will dissipate this afternoon. Otherwise, weak high pressure continues across the basin, with moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds across the eastern Gulf into early week. Fresh southerly return flow will develop tonight across the NW waters and continue through early week. Low pressure may develop over the southwestern Gulf toward the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean. An area of strong easterlies is likely within 180 nm of NE Colombia. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central basin and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft, off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through early week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean through early week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough stretches across the western Atlantic supporting a surface trough off the Florida coast. This pattern is producing scattered moderate convection from 22N to 31N between 74W and 80W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring north of Hispaniola. Anticyclonic winds are gentle to moderate across the remainder of the western Atlantic with 4-6 ft seas. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N21W to 23N38W. NE winds are moderate to fresh behind the front with 6-8 ft seas. A recent scatterometer pass found an area of moderate to fresh NE winds south of 15N and west of 35W. Winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak trough is expected to form near the NW and central Bahamas by mid-week, then possibly develop into weak low pressure while it lifts northeastward Thu and Thu night. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through early week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the region through early week. $$ Flynn