000 AXNT20 KNHC 280958 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat May 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 25W, S of 14N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 06N, where the wave meets the monsoon trough. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W, S of 12N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N and between 20W and 33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is draped across the northern Gulf coast, but this boundary is surrounded by a dry airmass that supports fairly tranquil weather conditions across most of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1015 mb high pressure centered over the SE Gulf maintains light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin, with seas of 2-3 ft. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will prevail across the coast of the Gulf states through Sun. Surface ridging is building across the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the area through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will develop across the NW waters Sun night and continue into early next week due to a pressure gradient building in the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed in the SW Caribbean, within 60 nm of Panama. Elsewhere, divergence aloft is producing scattered showers over the SE Caribbean, mainly affecting NE Venezuela and the southern Windward Islands. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and Venezuela. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring offshore Colombia. Light to moderate trades and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent elsewhere in the basin. In the forecast, the subtropical ridge N of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will continue pulsing each night off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through early next week with seas to 8 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A divergent flow aloft over the western Atlantic supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 28N and W of 78W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is noted N of the Bahamas and W of 75W. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are also present offshore northern Hispaniola and SE Bahamas. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N30W and continues southwestward to 24N45W. No significant convection is noted near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are present behind the cold front. Seas in this area are 4-7 ft. The rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned between Bermuda and the Azores that supports fairly tranquil weather conditions across the tropical Atlantic. In these waters, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward as a frontal boundary approaches the eastern U.S. coastline. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist off the NE Florida coast through today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the region through early next week. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas through early next week. $$ ERA