000 AXNT20 KNHC 280502 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat May 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 14N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 12N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N and between 20W and 33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast, but this boundary is surrounded by a dry airmass that supports fairly tranquil weather conditions across most of the Gulf of Mexico. The exception is in the eastern Bay of Campeche where afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity that formed over the Yucatan peninsula is gradually moving westward into the body of water. A 1015 mb high pressure over the NW Gulf maintains light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin, with seas of 2-3 ft. For the forecast, surface ridging is building across the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the area through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will develop across the NW waters Sun night and continue into early next week due to a pressure gradient building in the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is observed in the SW Caribbean Sea, within 60 nm of Panama. Elsewhere, divergence aloft is producing some scattered showers over the SE Caribbean, mainly affecting NE Venezuela and the southern Windward Islands. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and Venezuela. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring offshore Colombia. Light to moderate trades and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent elsewhere in the basin. In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will continue off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough offshore NE Florida and divergence aloft result in a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 28N and W of 78W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is noted N of the Bahamas and W of 75W. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are also present offshore northern Hispaniola and SE Bahamas. Farther east, a weak cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 28N49W. No significant convection is noted near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are present behind the cold front. Seas in this area are 4-7 ft. The rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned between Bermuda and the Azores that supports fairly tranquil weather conditions across the tropical Atlantic. In these waters, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward as a cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist off the NE Florida coast through early Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the region through early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas during the weekend and into early next week. $$ Delgado