000 AXNT20 KNHC 260539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu May 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 14W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 10N between 13W and 17W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 10N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 05N to Panama between 76W and 79W. Some areas of rainshowers are from 11N southward between Colombia and the 78W tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W, to 04N20W, and 02N31W. The ITCZ continues from 02N31W, to 01N40W, and 01N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 60 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 17W and 29W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 165 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 39W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through SW Louisiana to Mexico near 24N98W, and then inland in Mexico to 25N103W. Precipitation: a squall line has been within 240 nm to the east of the cold front. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N northward between 84W and 88W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico from 26N northward from 94W eastward, and in the remainder of the area that is from 90W eastward. Southerly fresh winds are in the eastern one-third of the Gulf of Mexico and in the Straits of Florida. Fresh to moderate easterly winds are within 150 nm of the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet. A squall line continues to move eastward over the northern and NE Gulf ahead of a cold front draped across the NW Gulf. The thunderstorms in this line could produce temporary gusty winds and rough seas through the early overnight hours. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh southerly flow is found in the central and eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate winds behind it. The cold front will continue pushing eastward through the northern basin over the next few days. As the front reaches the NE Gulf by Friday, the boundary will weaken. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist ahead of the front through this time. Winds will pulse to strong near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into the early overnight hours. By the weekend, high pressure will settle over the basin, bringing quiescent conditions. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong easterly winds are within 175 nm of the coast of Venezuela between 66W and 70W. Fresh winds are in the central one-third of the area, and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one third of the area: from 5 feet to 7 feet in the central one-third of the area; and from 4 feet to 6 feet in the western one-third of the area. The subtropical ridge north of the area will sustain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong north of Honduras tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is along 30N58W 24N64W, to 16N70W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N to 23N between 50W and 54W. Other high level clouds are within 240 nm on either side of 25N51W 16N61W. A surface ridge passes through 31N32W to 25N40W, to 24N60W and 26N80W. A cold front/stationary front is to the north of the area from 54W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front, and within 180 nm to the north of the cold front. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 25N to 27N within 80 nm of the coast of Africa. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh NE winds are within 190 nm to the west of Africa from 17N to 24N, and within 520 nm to the west of Africa from 24N northward. Fresh NE winds are from 06N to 14N between 46W and 56W. Fresh SE winds are from 30N northward between 32W and 40W. Fresh easterly winds are from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to 24N in the Bahamas between 70W and 77W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical ridge near Bermuda will shift eastward Thu morning through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across most of the region through the period. Winds off the NE Florida coast will become moderate to fresh ahead of the cold front on Fri and Fri night. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas. $$ mt/sd