000 AXNT20 KNHC 252202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu May 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 13W extending from 01N into West Africa to 15N. Associated convection is noted in the monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W from 00N to 10N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is present at this time with this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 17N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted in the monsoon trough section below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the West African coast near 12N17W to 04N20W to 02N32W. The ITCZ continues from 02N32W to 02N35W. It resumes west of a tropical wave from 01N39W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 10W and 20W. The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough reaches across Central America and extends from 10N83W to 11N75W over the Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N between 75W and 82W. GULF OF MEXICO... A squall line is moving eastward across the northern Gulf ahead of a cold front pushing off the Texas coast. Ahead of the front, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow prevails in the central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail behind the front. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, the cold front will continue pushing eastward through the northern basin over the next few days. As the front reaches the NE Gulf by Friday, the boundary will weaken. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist ahead of the front through this time. Winds will pulse to strong near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. By the weekend, high pressure will settle over the basin, bringing quiescent conditions. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the 1022 mb Bermuda High and lower pressure associated with the eastern North Pacific monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the area of high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong north of Honduras tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of 22N and west of 70W, where the pressure gradient is a little tighter between the subtropical high north of the area and the monsoon trough in the Caribbean waters. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail. Seas across the area are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast W of 65W, the high pressure ridge extending from near Bermuda to northern Florida will remain in place through tonight. The high pressure will shift eastward Thu morning through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across most of the region through the period. Winds off the NE Florida coast will become moderate to fresh ahead of the cold front on Fri and Fri night. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas. $$ AL