000 AXNT20 KNHC 251748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed May 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 160UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been added to the 1200 UTC surface map with an axis along 12W extending from 01N into West Africa up to 13N. The system has a well-defined near-surface circulation as seen in the METEOSAT visible imagery. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 03N east of 18W. The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 35W from 00N to 09N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The surface and 700 mb signatures for this system are very weak. No convection is present at this time with this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along near 76W from 17N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. While there is not a significant surface signature to this wave, it is weakly depicted by the Grand Cayman and Santo Domingo 700 mb rawindsonde observations. The wave is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 11N between 75W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the West African coast near 12N17W to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from there to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 03N, east of 18W. The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough reaches across Central America and extends from 10N83W to 10N76W over the Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N between 75W and 82W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a squall line extends from the Louisiana coast southwestward to the NE Mexico coast near 24N98W. Buoy 42002 at 26.1N 93.6W reported 33 kt sustained and gusts of 43 kt out of the NNW at 1620 UTC. Northwest of the squall line, a 1006 mb wake low is present at 27N97W. Elsewhere across the Gulf SE gentle to moderate winds prevail. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 NM of a line from 30N91W to 25N95W, while scattered moderate convection is noted north of 28N between 85W-87W. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin. For the forecast, fresh southerly return flow will prevail today across the basin as the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico tightens. Winds will pulse to strong near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. A cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf tonight with moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of it as it moves across the basin. The front will weaken as it reaches the NE Gulf on Fri. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front through Thu night. The front will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri and Sat as weak high pressure ridging settles over the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently moving across the south-central Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the 1022 mb Bermuda High and lower pressure associated with the eastern North Pacific monsoon trough is forcing moderate to fresh E trades across the Caribbean. Outside of the convection in the SW Caribbean associated with the eastern North Pacific monsoon trough and the tropical wave, no other significant convection is occurring today. Seas are 3-5 ft over the E Caribbean and 5-7 ft over the central and W Caribbean. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong north of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves currently moving across the eastern Atlantic. A 1011 mb occluded low north of our waters near 35N47W in between a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 32N76W and a 1030 mb Azores High near 40N24W is contributing toward generally gentle to moderate E trades across the tropical Atlantic. Aside from the convection associated with the monsoon trough/tropical wave, no other significant convection is occurring today. Seas are 3-6 ft across the tropical North Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure ridge extending from near Bermuda to northern Florida will remain in place through tonight. The high pressure will shift eastward Thu morning through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas. $$ Landsea