000 AXNT20 KNHC 232302 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue May 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W from 11N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This feature remains poorly organized and drier Saharan air is preventing any shower or thunderstorm north of 03N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the wave axis from 01N-03.5N between 25W and 29W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W-68W from 14N southward, moving westward 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is about the wave axis across Venezuela while no significant weather is occurring over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 09.5N13.5W to 04N29W. The ITCZ continues from 04N29W to 01N43W to 01N50W. Aside fro and from 00N- 08N between 40W- 52Wm the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N-07N between 06W- 18W. Scattered moderate convection isolated strong convection is also within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 32W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad mid to upper-level troughing is over the central to western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a warm front extends from Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to the central Texas coast. Recent ASCAT data showed moderate to locally fresh NE winds to the north of the warm front. A surface trough extends from the western Florida Panhandle to near 27N87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along and southeast of the surface trough, between 85W and 88W. This convection is being enhanced by upper- level divergence in the area. Another surface trough extends over the SW Gulf from 26N91.5W to 21.5N95W. Convection near this feature has ended of recent. Moderate SE winds are likely occurring east of this surface trough. Moderate to locally fresh ESE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft across much of the SW and west-central Gulf. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere across the basin. Areas of haze have been affecting some of the SW Gulf, with visibilities of 3 to 5 miles. For the forecast, the warm front will move northwest of the area through tonight. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds Tue and Wed with moderate seas. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Thu and weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid to upper-level ridging is over the central Caribbean between 70W-80W, while mid to upper-level troughing is farther west, over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level diffluence in between these two features is enhancing scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean from 18N-22N between 80W-87W. Scattered showers are also noted farther south, along the coast of Nicaragua, while strong afternoon convection over Panama and Costa Rica has grown across the adjacent waters within 45 nm of the coast. Recent ASCAT satellite data showed strong E trades over the south-central Caribbean, south of 16N between 70W-77W. An altimeter pass from 23/1030 UTC this morning shows seas of 10-11 ft off the coast of Colombia from 11N-14N between 74W-76W. Seas of 7-11 ft likely extend from 10N- 17N between 70W- 81W. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh SE winds and seas of 5-6 ft are likely occurring. Mainly moderate winds are over the E Caribbean and NW Caribbean to the north of 18N. Seas are 3-5 ft over these moderate wind areas. Dry Saharan air covers much of the basin today and is helping to limit convection. There is still enough low level moisture and convergence to support clusters of heavy rainfall during the next few days across portions of Costa Rica and western Panama, and also SW Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas, close to the Pacific coast. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological agency for more information concerning rainfall in these areas. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish starting today as the pressure gradient across the area weakens. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia through the latter part of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 30N72W, leading to fairly benign weather across most of the western Atlantic. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are near the high pressure center. Farther south, fresh ESE winds extend from north of Hispaniola through the Bahamas to South Florida, as well as in the Straits of Florida. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N42W to 25N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and east of the front to 40W, and north of 29N. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are located within this convective area. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, extending from a collapsed high near 34N31W to 1018 mb high pressure near 21N48W. Generally gentle to moderate winds cover most of the Atlantic east of 60W. Seas are likely 5-8 ft north of 27N between 38W-60W. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure extending from near Bermuda to the Carolinas will remain nearly stationary through Tue while gradually weakening. The area of high pressure will shift eastward Thu through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. Moderate northeast swell may impact the waters east of 60W through Tue, then subside into Wed. For the forecast east of 55W, northerly winds off the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, will increase to near gale force by midday Tue. Winds there will diminish Wed night. $$ Stripling