000 AXNT20 KNHC 222258 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon May 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis from 01N to 11N along 22W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is being dominated by a Saharan Air Layer Outbreak, which is limiting the convection to scattered moderate and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough or from 02N to 07N between 17W and 24W. A tropical wave is across the Windward Islands with axis S of 14N and along 61W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Abundant deep layer moisture is to the E of the wave axis mainly associated with the ITCZ. Divergent flow aloft supports a broad area of showers with isolated tstms south of 11N between 53W and 61W. Associated scattered to numerous strong convection is across much of South America from 05N to 08N between 55W and 68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W to 05N19W to 03N32W. The ITCZ begins near 03N32W and continues to 02.5N45W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is off the W coast of Africa from 03N to 08N between 07W and 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge dominates the eastern half of the basin while lower pressure is building W of 90W ahead of a cold front that has reached the the coast of Texas. A pre-frontal trough arches from southeast Louisiana to the southern tip of Texas, and is generating scattered showers and tstms along it S of 27N and W of 90W. In the E Gulf, however, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with deep layered low pressure across the north central Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N87.5W to 24N88.5W. Recent satellite imagery reveals a low level cloud swirl moving northward along the surface trough axis. Surface pressures remain high, and environmental conditions do not appear favorable for significant development before this system moves inland over the central Gulf Coast in a day or so. This system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the central Gulf Coast from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle this evening and early tonight. Previous strong convection across the Gulf during the past 12 hours has produced strong and gusty winds, falling below gale force this morning. Seas remain rough, and are estimated at 6 to 9 ft across much of the north central and northwest Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will build from westward from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf through mid-week. The associated gradient between the ridge and lower pressure with a cold front west of the area will support fresh southeast return flow over the western Gulf Tue through late Wed. The cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf on Thu followed by gentle to moderate north to northeast winds. Otherwise, pulses of fresh to strong winds are expected off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers prevail over the W Caribbean from 11N to 19N W of 81W, associated with moisture behind a Pacific tropical wave along 93W, and elongated low pressure lingering from Honduras SW into the Pacific waters off of El Salvador. Localized periods of heavy rain are still possible this evening through tonight as this elongated low pressure meanders across Central America. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds across most of the basin W of 67W, and strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Seas are in the 5 to 9 ft range western portions, except for 7 to 11 ft in the central basin. Stable conditions along and Saharan Air dominate most of the basin east of 80W and are producing fair and hazy skies. For the forecast, fresh to strong east to southeast winds and rough seas will persist into tonight over parts of the south- central and northwestern Caribbean between high pressure to the north and lower pressure over southern Mexico. Winds and seas will begin to diminish early Mon as the high pressure weakens, although fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia into mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Atlantic is mainly under the influence of the Bermuda high, which is anchored by a 1027 mb high near 32N71W. Farther east, in the central part of the basin, the tail of a cold front extends from 31N48W to 26N61W with no convection. A second ridge is east of the front, extending weakly SW into the area along 32W. The pressure gradient south of this ridge is weak, and is only yielding moderate trade winds S of 16N and W of 35W. Seas across the trade wind region are 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 8 ft offshore of Trinidad and Tobago. Saharan Air and suspended dust dominates much of the trade wind region and into the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will change little through mid-week. It will shift eastward Thu ahead of a cold front moving across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas through Mon night. Moderate northeast swell may impact the waters east of 60W through Tue, then subside into Wed. $$ Stripling