000 AXNT20 KNHC 221805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun May 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis from 01N to 11N along 21W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is being engulfed by a Saharan Air Layer Outbreak, which is limiting the convection to scattered moderate and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough or from 02N to 07N between 18W and 28W. A tropical wave is just to the E of the Windward Islands with axis S of 14N and along 60-61W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Abundant deep layer moisture is to the E of the wave axis mainly associated with the ITCZ. Divergent flow aloft supports a broad area of showers with isolated tstms from 06N to 11N between 50W and 62W. Recent scatterometer data show gusty wind within this region of showers. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 07N12W to 04N22W to 03N30W. The ITCZ begins near 03N30W and continues to 05N50W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is off the W coast of Africa from 01N to 09N between 04W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge dominates the eastern half of the basin while lower pressure is building W of 90W ahead of a cold front near the coast of Texas. A pre-frontal trough extending from south-central Louisiana to the southern tip of Texas is generating scattered showers and tstms N of 25N and W of 91W. In the E Gulf, however, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a surface trough of low pressure that at 1500 UTC extended from 29N88W to 22N89W. Recent scatterometer and altimeter data show fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with this trough. Environmental conditions do not appear favorable for significant development before this system moves inland over the central Gulf Coast in a day or so. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. For the forecast, a ridge will build from westward from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf through mid-week. The associated gradient between the ridge and lower pressure with a cold front west of the area will support fresh southeast return flow over the western Gulf Tue through late Wed. The cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf on Thu followed by gentle to moderate north to northeast winds. Otherwise, pulses of fresh to strong winds are expected off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers prevail over the NW Caribbean as well as Nicaragua and Costa Rica adjacent waters. This activity of showers associated with the Central American Gyre event is forecast to continue through Wed. Localized periods of heavy rain are still possible within this period. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the basin, except for fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range, except for 7 to 8 ft in the central basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong east to southeast winds and rough seas will persist into tonight over parts of the south- central and northwestern Caribbean between high pressure to the north and lower pressure over southern Mexico. Winds and seas will diminish tonight through Mon as the pressure areas weaken although fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia into mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will shift slightly southward today, then change little through mid-week. It will shift eastward Thu ahead of a cold front moving across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas through Mon night. Moderate northeast swell may impact the waters east of 60W through Tue, then subside into Wed. $$ Ramos