000 AXNT20 KNHC 220606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun May 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Central America and in SE Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is just off the Pacific Ocean coast of eastern El Salvador. Periods of heavy rain during the last 30 hours have been reaching parts of: northern Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, coastal El Salvador, and southern Guatemala, as indicated by infrared satellite images. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in parts of north central Nicaragua, and in the eastern half of Honduras. Scattered to numerous strong is in the western half of Guatemala, and in adjacent parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other rainshowers, are in the Caribbean Sea from 80W westward. Additional periods of moderate to heavy rain, including locally heavy to extreme rain, are expected during the next four days through Wednesday 25 May, in parts of: western Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, southern Honduras, El Salvador, southern Guatemala, and the Mexican state of Chiapas. Expect also the potential for localized areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. This is a slowly-moving weather system. High atmospheric moisture content is expected in the aforementioned areas during the next several days. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological agency for more information. Thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico: A large line of thunderstorms persists over the central Gulf of Mexico, associated with an upper trough over the north-central Gulf. The thunderstorms are building as the line moves over the warm loop current in the central Gulf. Gusts to gale force are possible around these thunderstorms, along with locally higher wave heights and frequent lightning. A short-term gale warning may be necessary for the central Gulf to account for large and persistent outflow boundaries associated with these thunderstorms. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 13N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in the Atlantic Ocean from 10N southward between 42W and 60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is inland, in parts of French Guiana and Suriname, and in parts of NW Guyana and adjacent areas of NE Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N20W, and to 02N27W. The ITCZ continues from 02N27W, to 01N34W, and to 01N40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 03N to 07N between 10W and 15W, and from 04N to 08N between 19W and 27W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N northward to the coast of Africa between the Prime Meridian and 07W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is in the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 24N to 27N between 86W and 91W. An inland Texas cold front passes through NE Texas to south central Texas. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Texas, within 135 nm to the south and southeast of the cold front. Strong SE winds are in the central one-third of the Gulf. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet in the Texas coastal waters from the middle Texas Gulf coast northward, and within 130 nm to the south of the SE Louisiana coast. The wave heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the SW corner of the area. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Fresh SE winds are in the west central Gulf of Mexico. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico continues to spread northward. Hazy skies are in the western Gulf west of 93W off Mexico, and in southern Texas. A line of thunderstorms persists in the central Gulf this evening, associated with an upper disturbance over the region. This activity is expected to diminish gradually through late Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas are ongoing in the central Gulf as well, between a strong western Atlantic Ocean ridge and lower pressure in southern Mexico. The winds and the seas will diminish Sun into Mon as the low pressure weakens, except for pulses off fresh to strong winds off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night. Looking ahead, a ridge will build westward, from the western Atlantic Ocean across the northern Gulf through mid-week. The associated gradient between the ridge and low pressure with a cold front west of the area will support fresh southeast return flow in the western Gulf Tue through late Wed. The cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf on Thu, followed by gentle to moderate north to northeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous strong deep convective precipitation has been occurring in the area of a broad cyclonic circulation in Central America, and the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough. Mainly fair weather is found in the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea, from 77W eastward, in an area of subsidence from a middle level ridge that is in the area. Strong NE winds are within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia between 71W in the Gulf of Venezuela and 76W. Fresh NE winds are to the east of the comparatively-smaller area of strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Strong SE winds are from 16N to 20N from 85W westward, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere in the central one-third of the area, and off the northern coast of Jamaica. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet within 300 nm to the north of the coast of Colombia, in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 18N to 19N between 80W and 83W. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area. Broad low pressure in Central America will slowly move northwestward through Sun as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. This pattern will support fresh to strong east to southeast winds and rough seas over the central and northwest Caribbean through Sun night. Winds and seas will start to diminish across the basin late Sun through mid week as the pressure gradient relaxes. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 31N52W to 19N65W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, from 19N northward between 43W and 70W. One 1026 mb high pressure center is near 32N69W. A second 1026 mb high pressure center is near 32N29W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. Light to gentle winds, and wave heights that range from 3 feet to 4 feet, are from 24N northward between 40W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from north of Hispaniola through the Old Bahama Channel to South Florida. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet in the Windward Passage. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are from the ITCZ to 16N between 40W and 60W. Moderate trade winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 6 feet, are elsewhere from the ITCZ to 20N between 30W and 60W. Fresh NNE winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are from 20N northward between the coast of Africa and 21W. A high pressure ridge along 31N will shift slightly south on Sun, then change little through mid-week. It will begin to shift eastward on Thu as a cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and again on Sun night. Moderate northeast swell may impact the waters east of 60W Sun through Tue. The swell is expected to subside Tue night into Wed. $$ mt/ec