000 AXNT20 KNHC 170402 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue May 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 70W, from 04N to 16N. It's moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This position corresponds with an area of enhanced moisture seen on total precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed in Venezuela and Colombia, south of 11N between 66W and 74W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the coast of Sierra Leone, from 02N to 07N between 19W and 32W, and from 02N to 06N between 39W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1015 mb located over the central Gulf dominates the pattern. Gentle to moderate southerlies are observed in the western Gulf with moderate to fresh easterlies in the Bay of Campheche. Winds are light in the eastern Gulf. Buoys are reporting seas of 2-4 ft in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the area will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas into mid week. SE winds will increase over the northwest Gulf by late Wed as the high pressure shifts east of the region. Farther south, fresh northeast winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula each night through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between high pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure over South America is maintaining moderate to fresh easterlies in the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds are light to gentle in the NW Caribbean, where a surface trough is analyzed along 83W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the NW portion of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstroms are observed in the SW Caribbean along the monsoon trough. For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the east and central Caribbean through mid week, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia. Winds and seas across the basin may increase through late week as the ridge strengthens. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and seas across the basin may increase through late week as this borad low pressure forms and the ridge north of the area strenghtnes. Moist onshore flow may also promote heavy rainfall across northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-level trough is moving over the far western Atlantic, causing scattered weak showers between Cuba and Bermuda, including portions of the Bahamas. A 1025 mb high in the central Atlantic near 29N54W is causing gentle to moderate SE flow across the majority of the sub-tropical western Atlantic, where seas are 4-6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N27W to 28N40W to 31N49W. Winds are gentle on both sides of the front, but 8-10 ft swell is observed behind the front. Winds increase to moderate to fresh south of 20N, with 8-10 ft seas south of 15N between 45W and the Lesser Antillies. The remainder of the basin is dominated by light to gentle winds and 4-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along 28N will shift east by Tue ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the north. The front will move over the waters north of 28N between northeast Florida and 55W through late Wed. Fresh east to southeast winds will pulse north of Hispaniola tonight. $$ Flynn