000 AXNT20 KNHC 160916 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon May 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is across the southeast Caribbean with axis south of 17N and along 65W/66W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This position is on the edge of a lower-level area of moisture, showing up well in layered precipitable water imagery. The wave is in a unfavorable wind shear environment with no significant convection noted. Winds associated with this wave are in the 15 to 20 kt range with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range just east of the Windward Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to the Equator at 45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 12W and 15W, and south of 05N between 30W and 49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 12W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 05N between 30W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1015 mb high pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf near 25N93W. Over the northeast Gulf, a surface trough that reaches from near Apalachicola, Florida to near 26N88W. This surface trough is related to a sharp upper trough reaching from north-central Florida to the south-central Gulf. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active off the coast of southeast Louisiana, and near the end of the surface trough at 26N88W. Moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds are likely off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with 2 to 4 ft seas. The weak surface pressure is maintaining gentle to moderate breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas into mid week. SE winds will increase over the northwest Gulf by late Wed as the high pressure shifts east of the region. Farther south, fresh northeast winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active off Nicaragua, along a surface trough that extends from the Nicaraguan coast through western Cuba. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong trade winds over the ABC islands and off the coast Venezuela. These winds are supported by strong high pressure over the western Atlantic. Seas are likely 6 to 8 ft in this part of the Caribbean. The pattern also supports moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft over the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh strong trade winds across the southeast and south-central Caribbean through mid week, with stronger winds pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and seas across the basin may increase through late week as this broad low pressure forms and the ridge north of the area strengthens. Moist onshore flow may also promote heavy rainfall across northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active about 60 nm off the coast of northeast Florida, along a surface trough over the same area and ahead of a mid to upper level trough currently moving off the Florida coast. The subtropical ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N57W westward along 30N. The ridge is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of the ridge, specifically south of 22N and west of 55W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also indicated fresh to strong E winds off the coast of Hispaniola. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft east of 55W over open waters. A similar pattern is noted farther east, with a ridge extending from the high pressure near 30N57W toward the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted south of the ridge, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh westerly flow is evident north of the ridge and east of 50W, between the ridge and a cold front approaching from the north. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell in this area. Elsewhere light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident. For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms may increase northeast of the northern Bahamas today as an upper level disturbance moves off the Florida coast. Meanwhile, a surface ridge along 30N will shift east by Tue ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the north. The front will move over the waters north of 28N between northeast Florida and 55W through late Wed. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds will pulse north of Hispaniola tonight. $$ Christensen