000 AXNT20 KNHC 160603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon May 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 15N southward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 13N17W, to 10N20W 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W, to 03N30W 01N39W, to the Equator along 41W, to the Equator along 45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 09N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough passes through the Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N northward from 90W eastward. A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 26N93W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is in Florida from NW Cuba to 29N82W in Florida. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the Gulf of Mexico, except for moderate winds in the Texas coastal waters. Seas are 1 ft or less east of 90W and in the 1-3 ft range west of 90W. Ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico are producing some areas of slight to moderate haze mainly in the southwestern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas into mid week. SE winds will increase over the northwest Gulf by late Wed as the high pressure shifts east of the region. Farther south, fresh northeast winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad deep layer cyclonic wind flow is in the NW Caribbean Sea, and in much of Central America. A surface trough passes from the southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea from 11N northward, along 81W/83W, beyond NW Cuba, to north central Florida near 29N82W. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 10N75W, through western Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between Jamaica and the surface trough. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other isolated moderate rainshowers, are in the remainder of the area that is from 65W westward. Moderate to fresh E-to-SE winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are from the surface trough eastward. The only exception is local wave heights that are reaching 8 feet to the northwest of the northern coast of Colombia. Light to gentle N-to-NE winds, and wave heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will continue to support moderate to fresh strong trade winds across the southeast and south-central Caribbean through mid week, with stronger winds pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia. The winds and the seas across the basin may increase through late week, as the ridge north of the area strengthens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad deep layer cyclonic wind flow is in the NW Caribbean Sea, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 65W westward. A surface trough passes from the southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea from 11N northward, along 81W/83W, beyond NW Cuba, to north central Florida near 29N82W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 70W westward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other possible rainshowers, are from from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. A surface ridge is along 31N14W, to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 26N25W, to a second 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 25N46W, to 28N56W, beyond 31N60W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N northward from 60W westward, and elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. The wave heights range: from 7 feet to 8 feet from 30N northward from 50W eastward; from 07N to 17N between 25W and 40W; and from 05N to 17N between 40W and 60W. The wave heights range generally from 3 feet to 6 feet within 360 nm on either side of the surface ridge, with some isolated areas of wave heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, from 20N southward. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh winds are within 1000 nm to the south of 23N, from 60W eastward. Moderate wind speeds, or slower, are elsewhere in the same area. Fresh wind speeds are from 27N northward between 30W and 40W. Moderate wind speeds, or slower, are elsewhere from 23N northward from 60W eastward. Fresh wind speeds are within 120 nm to the north of Hispaniola between 69W and 73W. Moderate wind speeds, or slower, are elsewhere from 60W westward. Showers and thunderstorms may increase northeast of the northern Bahamas Mon as an upper level disturbance moves off the Florida coast. Meanwhile, a surface ridge along 30N will shift east by Tue ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the north. The front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area on Wed, with moderate to fresh southwest winds preceding it. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds north of Hispaniola will persist through Mon. $$ mt/ec